Markets now price in a 25 bps cut at the Sept 16–17 FOMC.
The White House wants it. Trump calls Powell “too late” and even hints at replacing him.
But Powell holds the line: Fed pushing on being “independent” & data-dependent.
📊 Data check:
• CPI stuck at 2.7% (July)
• PPI shocked at 3.3% vs 2.3% prior ⚠️
This complicates the cut narrative.
Next big signal: Powell’s Jackson Hole keynote (Aug 22). He could:
– hint at a Sept cut on weak jobs
– push back, citing sticky inflation
– stay patient, waiting for clarity
If cuts land before a recession, history shows markets often rip higher:
• liquidity floods risk assets
• institutions chase Q4 positioning
• $ETH likely leads on strong on-chain activity
• altcoins may follow (Google searches are already ticking up 📈)
But beware—soft landings are rare. Rate cuts can fuel rallies that later prove to be cycle tops.
September may decide if this market is running into a melt-up… or a trap.
