Full transcript: Colonel Douglas Macgregor on London Real
3:35 This is London Real. I am Brian Rose. My guest today is Colonel Douglas McGregor, the decorated combat veteran, author, and foreign policy expert. You are widely recognized as one of the preeminent military strategists of our time with a 28-year career at the highest levels of the US armed forces. In 2020, President Donald Trump appointed you as senior adviser to the Secretary of Defense.
3:57 You’ve been a regular commentator on Fox News and the Tucker Carlson show where you always challenged the dominant narratives around America’s military conduct, foreign policy, and national defense. You’ve argued that the US is now engaged in a quote unquote new long war that will eventually draw in China, Russia, and many Muslim nations. You also believe that countries around the world may now begin developing nuclear weapons, not for dominance, but as a deterrent against being attacked by the United States.
4:24 Colonel McGregor, welcome back to London Real. Thanks, Brian. Happy to be here. Love to get your thoughts on the last two weeks. We obviously saw this historic action with I guess it was a joint US US-Israel military strike on Iran.
4:42 Obviously the big bunker buster bombs, the stealth bombers on a stealth mission and now we’re a week later and markets are at the all-time high. Oil is back down. So I guess everything is fine. Is that right, Colonel? Well, I think it’s important to realize that this began while we were at least in theory talking to the Iranians about a negotiated settlement revolving around the nuclear material that the Iranians wanted to maintain and enrich for civil use as opposed to bomb building.
5:16 And in the midst of all of this, the Israelis launched a surprise attack. And of course we were complicit because Witkoff and the president and others who were involved in these discussions conveyed the impression that the discussions were real. Then at the last minute we suddenly reversed our position and said no enrichment at all and bang, you got this surprise attack by the Israelis. It seems as though it didn’t take very long for the Israelis to run through their arsenal of missiles.
5:46 And that seems to have been a huge issue for them. The Iranians were caught off guard. They were a little shaken initially, but what surprised the Israelis and the United States, I think all of us who were watching this, is how rapidly they recovered from the surprise. And then they began to fire missiles, large numbers of missiles, hundreds of missiles every day. And ultimately, if you look at the at the map and you look at the targets, the targets were overwhelmingly military and commercial.
6:17 Certainly the ports, these facilities, they were very effective and frankly Israel was running out of missiles. It certainly had almost none with which to defend itself. We went through a lot of missiles because we had our ships offshore. The Aegis class destroyers and so forth firing missiles to protect Israel. And you know you can only go through so many, perhaps 50 per ship out of an arsenal of a hundred.
6:46 Say 50 are air-to-air and missile defense missiles. The other 50 are strike missiles ashore for use ashore. So it doesn’t take very long if you’re firing at least two missiles at every incoming missile to go through your stock of air and missile defense missiles. So I think that happened to Israel and quite frankly the damage they were sustaining was very severe. Now, publicly the Israelis dismissed all of that and the narrative was, “Oh, we’re, you know, robust, irresistible, invincible, and vulnerable.”
7:19 But then we had Ben-Gvir, who’s part of the inner circle of people that want to wipe out what remains of Gaza and attack virtually anybody in the region that refuses to submit. And he said we were surprised by the capabilities and the size of the Iranian arsenal because he had been asked why are you turning to the Americans already? It’s only been a few days. Well, we were surprised at what the Iranians could do. Then subsequently you had a speech that you can go online and listen to by Smotrich, the finance minister, another hard hardcore advocate for total destruction in Gaza and the war with Iran.
8:00 And he said we’ve got maybe a week, two weeks before the entire Israeli economy implodes. So, it was pretty obvious at that stage that the Iranians had achieved much of their goal, which was to demonstrate that they could not be defeated and that they could ultimately destroy Israel. I think that’s when the Israelis approached President Trump and said, “We’ve got to have a ceasefire.” And that’s what they ultimately were given. Now you have at the same time the decision by the president to launch these strikes and it’s a very interesting event, Brian, because we’ve seen things like this in the past and I’ll go to that in a second.
8:42 He seems to have talked to the Iranians and made it clear to them that we were going to go in and hit these three alleged nuclear development sites and that was it. That’s all we were going to do. Nothing more, nothing less. and they agreed to stand down. We did not, or we were not subject to any air and missile defense fire.
9:04 We attacked these sites with the conventional munitions that we have. President Trump then went forward and announced victory, assuring everybody that this was a great success. We destroyed all of these sites and he said the war is over. I mean I that’s really the way it went down. And then he said now we want peace.
9:28 This is all very fascinating because, you know, only Americans are the types to step forward and say we’re bombing you this morning. We’re sending sandwiches and coffee over tomorrow afternoon because by evening we really want peace. Well, the problem is that we are now a co-belligerent in the war with Iran directly. Not that we weren’t always there, but now it’s unambiguous. And I don’t think the war is over by any stretch of the imagination, but it’s very clear that the Israelis and we, frankly, needed a pause.
9:59 Now, why would we need a pause? Well, remember that if we just look at one type of missile, the Patriot missile, right now we can build about 660 of those a year. Well, that’s not very many. So, it’s not as though you’re going to suddenly flip the switch. It’s 1943 and FDR called and said, “I want you to surge 30,000 missiles.”
10:24 We can’t do that. We don’t have the capability. So, I think we wanted a break because we’re concerned about our arsenal. We have perhaps 10 days to two weeks of missiles right now, strike missiles and air and missile defense missiles for a war with a quote unquote peer competitor. That’s not very much compared with what we have historically maintained.
10:50 So that’s one consideration. The other consideration is the Israelis are simply naked right now until they can replenish their arsenal. Now that doesn’t mean the war is over. It simply means we’re at a pause. And at the same time, we’re beginning to see other events in the region develop.
11:07 Most particularly what’s been happening in the Caucasus with John. We can talk about that if you’d like. But I think the bottom line is this is the beginning, not the end. Maybe it’s the end of the beginning of the new long war because I see no evidence that the Israelis will accept anything other than total destruction of Iran if necessary or for that matter anybody else in the region that challenges them. And there is no end to what’s happening in Gaza.
11:36 Every day I try to tune in and find out what’s the state of these ceasefire talks and I still see an impasse between Hamas and Israel. Israel wants no end to the destruction. They’ll take a 60-day ceasefire. They’ll take hostages back, but then they want to resume the war. Hamas doesn’t want to resume the war.
11:55 Well, it’s no surprise in that. I think we would like to see this thing end obviously in Washington, but Israel is really in charge, not us. And I think that’s the other thing that we need to come to terms with that President Trump really is profoundly influenced and shaped in his thinking and behavior by the Israel lobby. Absolutely. Without question.
12:21 Colonel, if you go back to October 7th and 23 and you look at till now, from a military standpoint, is it overall fairly impressive that Israel was able to neutralize to a certain extent Hamas and Hezbollah and the Houthis to a certain extent and Iran in this course of a less than a 2-year period. And now that we see, you know, Syria with a new president and potentially that region shifting a little bit, can this turn into a major victory for peace in that region? I know those are kind of two separate questions, but you know, I don’t think anybody saw Israel kind of coming back so quickly and all of these forces like Hezbollah and Iran that seemed unstoppable basically being on pause temporarily.
13:09 Did that impress you or surprise you as a strategist? I’m a little surprised that Iran accepted the ceasefire. Okay. If they had kept it up for another week, that would have been the end of Israel. So, I think we need to keep that in mind.
13:25 No doubt Moscow and Beijing both advised the Iranians to accept the ceasefire. Now, we’ll see, you know, if that was a prudent decision or not for them over the weeks ahead, but I think we need to understand that Israel had finally struck what I would call granite and could not advance any further and risked being destroyed by Iran. Now, of course, that leaves open the possibility that under those circumstances, Israelis would have announced they’re going to use a nuclear weapon because they’ve always threatened that behind the scenes.
14:00 They certainly did in 1973, and I see no evidence that they would not have done that since. It was always the United States that intervened and said, “Fine, we know you have that. Do not use it.” I don’t think that restraint exists anymore. I don’t think we have that kind of influence over them.
14:17 I think their influence over us is greater. Now as far as the other things are concerned, ISIS is not gone. It still exists. If anything it’s rearming. I do not think that you can regard Lebanon, even though they did a great deal of damage there, killed thousands of people all the way up to and including Beirut, I don’t think you can regard that as a foregone conclusion.
14:40 If I were going to point to an area where they’ve had significant success and they are not alone in this and did not achieve it on their own, it’s Syria. They managed to replace the government in Syria of Mr. Assad, which they’ve wanted to get rid of for years because of his friendliness to Iran and other reasons. Now we have the former deputy head of al-Qaeda and a deputy head of ISIS who has now become a president of this new Syrian republic. If you want to dignify with that name, they’re killing Christians on a routine basis.
15:14 They went into a church just the other day and killed half the people in the church and burned it down. I think that was just a suicide bomber, right? That was kind of a rogue suicide bomber, right? I don’t think that was government sanctioned. I don’t think it was a rogue.
15:27 Okay. And I think we’re dealing with a very vicious and dangerous regime in Syria which is backed by Mr. Erdogan. But then again, Mr. Erdogan and the Turks actually helped to stand up ISIS to begin with. Remember that ISIS was really designed to do one thing and that was to kill Shiites in Iraq. It was not designed to wander all over the map and kill anybody that got in its way.
15:53 I think that’s now more focused in Syria. And that’s where Mr. Erdogan and Mr. Netanyahu have a certain condominium of interest if they can focus Syria and the thugs that are in Syria on killing you know the Shiites in Iraq because northern Iraq right now is an area that Mr. Erdogan has his eyes on because Mr. Erdogan is also concerned about the emergence of a Kurdish state and you have the potential for that in Syria and northern Iraq. If there’s one thing that aggravates him perhaps more than anything else at this stage, it’s the possibility those Kurds could come together.
16:34 We and the Mossad, that is MI6, CIA and Mossad have worked very closely with the Kurds and so this is a touchy area for Mr. Erdogan. At the same time, we worked very hard with Mr. Erdogan to unseat Assad and his government. So, I think we have a success. Do you think that was a success? Well, it depends on your view.
16:58 I don’t see anything particularly socially, culturally, or politically redeeming about the government in Syria. And I think at some point Mr. Erdogan will regret what he’s done because he and the Turkish military may ultimately have to go into that place. Syria is by no stretch of the imagination, in my judgment, permanently stable or a status quo member of the region, but the Sunni Islamists are very happy with it for the reasons I’ve outlined. Mr. Netanyahu is happy with it, and I don’t think Mr. Netanyahu will have too much trouble with Mr. Erdogan, provided Mr. Netanyahu and the Israelis stay south of Damascus.
17:38 Damascus has great meaning in the Islamic world and one of the earliest Turkish sultans is interred there in one of the great mosques of Islam. In fact, when the Turkish chief of intelligence visited Damascus shortly after the fall of the previous government, he landed at Damascus airport, went instantly to the great mosque and prayed. That was done, you know, with great symbolism in mind. It was a message at first. We Turks are back.
18:08 We’re serious and we are ultimately going to run the show. And secondly, Israel, do not do not try to occupy Damascus. Don’t come up here. Now, how long will this last, Brian? How long did the Nazi-Soviet pact last?
18:24 Well, it did pretty well from what, be what was it about August of 39 until June of 1941. So, that’s not a little less than two years. We haven’t even, you know, in the Middle East that’s a the blink of an eye. So, we’ll see how long this condominium of interest between the Israelis and the Turks last. The interesting thing is that I think Israel has gotten at least short-term what it wants in Syria.
18:54 It has part of what it wants in Lebanon. The conditions in the Sinai and in Egypt are something else entirely. And the Israelis have made threats to the Egyptians because the Egyptians have moved forces to the border with Gaza. Now, some people say, “Well, that’s just to keep all the people in Gaza from coming into Egypt. That’s part of it.”
19:14 But the population in Egypt is absolutely enraged. This is the largest Arab country in the world. And they are enraged at what the Israelis have been doing to murder the Palestinians by the bushel. And of course very recently another example in on Pal in the West Bank of Palestine you had a whole village of Christian Arabs. They were all driven out of their homes.
19:37 Some of them were killed as I understand it. Then the of people. And that’s why I say this war is not over. It’s just really at the beginning and it’s going to go on. Now, if we can move briefly to the Caucasus, this is much more significant, I think.
20:58 Can I ask you one last thing to finish on Syria? Trump just lifted sanctions after he met with the president in Saudi and now there’s a rumor that Syria might even sign Abraham Accords before the end of the year. What do you make of both of those? Not much. You know, first of all the Abraham Accords are anathema to everyone in the Islamic world except the ruling elites in Saudi Arabia and perhaps the Emirates.
21:24 The distance today between the populations in the region in the p among the peninsula Arabs and in North Africa the distance between their ruling elites, their ruling political class and the masses of the population are huge. I mean, really, really enormous. I suppose as long as they can keep the food available, they can keep making sure that everyone is paid and enjoys a relatively cushy life that this can continue. But any interruption than that would be devastating.
21:56 So all I would say is at this stage I wouldn’t attach much significance to that. that may be important to President Trump’s donors and the Israel lobby and it may be good optics temporarily for America and his friends. It’s not very meaningful. Okay, tell me about the Caucasus. Well, the Caucasus, as you know, links the soft underbelly of Russia to Iran.
22:26 And I’m sure you’ve had many people come on and talk about the one belt, one road. And the Chinese recently, they’re one of the first trains to come all the way from China on the rail lines and offload freight in Iran just occurred a few weeks ago. That’s the tip of the proverbial ice, you know, iceberg. The Chinese are not interested in Iran and the one belt, one road just because they have a dream of resuscitating the Silk Road. It’s much more than that.
23:02 There’s an organization they worry about constantly. It’s called the United States Navy. And that is that their ports, because of their long, long coast with the Pacific, could suddenly be bottled up. Bottling up their ports would take no more than a handful of submarines. You don’t need a big surface fleet for that anymore.
23:24 You just torpedo or missile somebody coming in or out and everybody stops. We know that from experience. They have been working tirelessly to build an alternative commercial structure that could move goods and services back and forth across the Eurasian landmass without making them entirely dependent upon the sea. And more recently, as you, when you look at the Persian Gulf, something else which has no doubt been very high on Mr. Trump’s mind is the possibility that suddenly you can move a quarter of the world’s gas, natural gas and oil through the Persian Gulf.
24:02 And he knows what that means. He understands the impact that a spike in oil prices would have on inflation. So I think that’s another reason why he was very anxious to sort of tie a bow at least on this phase of the operation. The Chinese are very dependent upon that oil and they want to get past that. And at the same time you have the Russians.
24:22 They want this line of communication, this north south route that runs from the Indian Ocean all the way up into Russia and then potentially from Russia through Russia and Ukraine and White Russia into Europe to be developed. They’ve been working on that. The Saudis have an interest in that. Everybody has an interest in it because of the problems we saw with the Suez Canal. You know, who wants to be dependent upon the Suez Canal if you can avoid that place because that’s easily blocked, as we’ve seen, and if not blocked, certainly obstructed to certain types of traffic.
24:54 I think that what’s been going on in the Caucasus right now really, really touches a nerve. Azerbaijan is the sort of Asian face of Turkey. When I say Asian face, they’re facing east, north, and south. Whereas Anatolia is more western in its orientation strategically for obvious reasons. But both Ali, who is the president of Azerbaijan, and President Erdogan in Anatolia share a similar dream and that is this Turk empire that reaches all the way across to Kazakhstan because all of the people, until you reach Mongolia, the border with Mongolia, they all speak, with the exception of the Tajik, a language, it’s very, very close and they see themselves as quote unquote Turk.
25:45 You had the Organization of Turk states and the two of them have been trying to transform this organization into something more powerful politically and militarily and economically. It’s kind of a Turk version of the dream of Genghis Khan of uniting Central Asia with its friends in the Caucasus and Anatolia. Well, it hasn’t worked all that well for the reason that the Central Asian republics, the places we called ‘stans, are all on extremely good terms with Moscow.
26:17 In fact, all the leadership there loves Vladimir Putin. In fact, most of them take the position that Putin is the only man they can depend upon in a crisis. We on the other hand have been working certainly since the late ’70s to do whatever we can to destabilize and create unrest in Central Asia. This began of course as you know with the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan and then it continued and it got another shot in the arm in 1996-97 from Brzezinski who was pushing once again ways to create trouble in Central Asia primarily for Russia.
26:57 Then others said well this could also be helpful in terms of creating trouble for China. Well, the interesting thing is that the Russians and the Chinese both share the same interest that is stabilizing Central Asia. Now, the people in Central Asia are not particularly enthusiastic about the Chinese as a group of people, but they do want to do business with them. They are very comfortable with the Russians. So, Russia has effectively become the muscle in Central Asia to keep things under control.
27:29 In fact, somebody was telling me the other day that was very involved in the intelligence committee said, “People could not understand why pallets of cash were still being delivered in Kabul after we left Afghanistan.” So, they didn’t understand that cash was meant for subversion in Central Asia. So if you’re sitting in Moscow and you look at what we have been doing, whether it’s in the Middle East or with sanctions, tariffs, and all these other things, they look at what we’ve been up to in Central Asia, and that doesn’t endear them to or dear us to them.
28:03 Let’s be frank. I mean, Putin actually at one point brought it up and suggested, I think it was to President Obama, are you going to be able to put a stop to this because we’d like to see this end? And he said, yes, yeah, that’s right. I agree. It needs to end.
28:17 It never ended. Which leads you into another discussion about who ultimately controls the Central Intelligence Agency and its apparatus. That’s another six-hour show for discussion. But the point is that this is ongoing. And here is Ali now who is let people know that he has an interest not only in annihilating Armenia.
28:40 Everybody can agree on that if you’re a Turk these days. We hate the Armenians. He was talking about chunks of Armenia and now people are saying he’s interested in more just than just parts of Armenia. And at the same time he said he’s prepared to send troops into northern Iran in order to move into the area in around Tabriz. That part of Iran is historically Turk and Azeri Turkish.
29:05 Now, how seriously should we take this? Well, we’ll see over the weeks and days ahead. But the Russians have certainly taken him very seriously. They just arrested the head of the Turk or Azerbaijani diaspora inside Russia in Yekaterinburg. You can watch it on YouTube.
29:26 They basically picked him up, arrested him along with someone else who was with him. And I think Moscow has made it very clear that they are not happy with any attempt to go in and destabilize and break up Iran. Now this is something we need to understand. We have been trying to do this to Russia through Ukraine. In other words, overthrow the regime, break up the state, and then move in and rape it for all of its resources and minerals and oil and gas and everything else.
30:00 That failed. So now the Western financial interests in London and New York City, led by Israel and the United States, have shifted their focus to the Middle East. And now especially to Iran, they would like to gain control of Iran’s resources. How do you do that? Well, if you can break the north south axis, the communications, the transportation, the cooperation between Russia and Iran, that’s the first step in the direction of isolating and then beginning to break up Iran with an external invasion that is at least in theory designed to quote unquote liberate the Turks in northern Iran from Iranian leadership.
30:41 I don’t know what the state of the people in northern Iran is right now. You probably need to talk to someone who’s more familiar with it than I am. My impression is that the Turks in northern Iran have been very fully and completely integrated into the larger character instruction structure of the Iranian state. This goes back to when they were Persia and they don’t really have any grievances as far as I know, but I could be wrong. Perhaps there are some grievances that could be exploited by Mr. Ali.
31:10 But now the Russians are on their case and I don’t think Mr. is going to have a free hand. Now, behind all of this, of course, stands Mr. Erdogan, who is who, as I said, is the western side of this eastern effort, and he’s being quiet. But let there be no mistake, the Mossad has been operating out of Azerbaijan for some time. They have bases there. They have been able to launch strikes into Iran from Azerbaijan.
31:41 We’ll wait and see what the Russians decide to do, but the Russians are not pleased with that. And it would be a mistake to assume that the Russians will not take action to stop that. But this is not going to go away. I mean, this is part of a larger strategy to isolate, to regime change Iran, and ultimately to break it up. So that’s why I say the war continues.
32:04 It’s just continuing now with other means. Did those strikes seriously inhibit the Iranian nuclear program? Were they able to get the uranium out before? I heard it’s actually quite movable. You implied that they gave them notice before they struck.
32:21 We already now see that they’ve rebuilt roads around that main facility. We can already see that from the satellite images even a week later. What do you think is the actual state of that? Also, it’s one thing to have a nuclear capacity. It’s another thing to actually be able to put it on a warhead.
32:36 So, what do you think the status is besides all the media that we hear? Well, I think that’s an important caveat that you meant at the end mentioned at the end. First of all, I’m not privileged to whatever the intelligence tells us. And I’ve learned through many years of service in the military that intelligence tends to be whatever the boss wants. So, you tend to get intelligence at the top that people think you want to see.
33:05 It doesn’t mean that it’s the only intelligence or the only answer, but you end up sifting through things and then predigesting it. What gets to the top is not necessarily what the top needs to see. And we’ve been listening to Mr. Netanyahu tell us that there two months, 2 weeks, 2 days, 2 hours from a nuclear weapon for how long? certainly since 1995. So I’m very skeptical of all that sort of business. The other thing is that the people I do trust and know something about Iran and have some sort of access to very sensitive intelligence tell me that there is no effort to build a bomb and hasn’t been.
33:47 I tend to think that’s true. Now the question is what about these installations that we bombed? Was everything out or was there something in? You know, I don’t know, but Ted Postol who knows a great deal about this as well as some others suggests that the enriched uranium at any rate was probably removed because we did not detect any release of radiation and normally if you’re successful at destroying something like that and there is the presence of plutonium you’re going to get radiation, you’re going to sense it, you can pick it up that hasn’t been picked up.
34:24 There is a growing body of evidence to suggest that not only was the material moved, they may have moved some of the centrifuges along with all of the uranium and enriched uranium and they may be at other locations about which we know nothing. And the Iranians had discovered that the IAEA had functioned as a very valuable intelligence collection agency for the Mossad. So I would not expect to see the IAEA ever come back. So, you know, to answer your question I don’t think this is the end at all and since we don’t seem to think that we killed anybody even President Trump’s seem to think that we hadn’t, you add it up and what is this?
35:09 It was a symbolic gesture and remember the Iranians then subsequently struck Bahrain, our military installations there. Before they did it, they warned us and by the way, we had already evacuated everyone from Bahrain. Right. And Qatar as well, right? Well, I don’t know.
35:27 May, maybe, too maybe the case. But all I’m saying is it strikes me that there was this sort of quid pro quo between Washington, between President Trump and the Iranians. Now, one of the things I keep telling people, and they look at me as though I’m crazy, having worked for President Trump, met with him a couple of times, this is a man who does not want a war, Brian. He doesn’t. And whenever he’s pushed, he looks for a way to do it without doing much.
35:57 He did that in Syria twice with cruise missile shots. And these cruise missile shots change nothing, hit nothing, and he declared success and victory and walked away. I think that’s his preference. This is a little different, though. And I don’t think we’re going to be able to walk away permanently because I think the Israelis will now recover and they will undertake everything in their power to resume this war as soon as they can.
36:26 And the real catalyst for conflict, I don’t think, is nuclear weapons at all. I think it’s Gaza. And as long as Gaza persists and continues to bleed, there will be more killing in the region. Are there Hezbollah sleeper cells in America? And is that something to be concerned about?
36:46 I don’t think we’ve ever seen one activated, but is that something to be concerned about? The FBI rounded up some people and put them under arrest. So, I would think that we probably know, if there are any, who they are. You know, it’s very difficult to conceal this sort of thing. You know, somebody was asking me about the Iranians.
37:09 We have a large Iranian population in California. Yeah. In fact, you can’t buy a Ferrari in California unless you go through the Iranians that own the dealerships. I mean, it’s a standing joke. You want a Ferrari, better speak Farsi.
37:24 And then, you know, they don’t sell it to you right away. I mean, it’s a very interesting development. So, I think we know where the Iranian population is. Then the other thing is I don’t think Iran is in the position right now where it wants to do something here that would make matters worse. Now again that may change.
37:45 The worse things get the more people die the more likely you are to see something like that. But right now I think the Iranians have told everyone to hold fire. Colonel, what’s China’s play here? And what do you think they were doing behind the scenes? Or is it better for them to wait and do they have bigger fish to fry?
38:07 Well, the Chinese are much like Donald Trump. They don’t want a war. And their view right now is very similar to the Russian view. If Iran is destroyed, if we succeed in regime change, if we put a puppet government in and it breaks up, that has huge strategic implications for Russia and China. We’ve already talked about China’s dependence on the oil and natural gas.
38:32 That’s not going to change anytime soon. They’re going to work to get around the sea routes and that’s going to continue without question. But I think their view is that Iran must be kept intact. It must survive because if it’s lost, that puts everything that they’re trying to achieve commercially, economically on the Eurasian landmass at risk. I think the Russians see Iran as the key to stability in Central Asia.
38:57 If you lose Iran and Iran becomes anarchic or worse yet our puppet in some fashion, then all of this could spill over the Caucasus into southern Russia. Remember, we’ve been working to stir up Muslim populations in Central Asia, even Muslims living in Russia. Now, that’s failed miserably. And again, I often point to the fact that Russia’s integration of the Muslim peoples inside Russia is brilliant and is a good model for people to think about. I mean, they it really is.
39:31 And all you have to do is look at the performance of the Chechen forces inside the Russian military establishment. They’ve done a brilliant job. They’re ferocious a Russian, why would you want to risk losing control of your southern border? Remember, Russia has huge borders and very many vulnerable points. And that’s the problem in Iran.
40:56 So, I think China and Russia have both said we will not let Iran fail. So the Chinese are now providing, I’m told, 127 new fifth generation, whatever it is, aircraft, fourth or fifth generation aircraft to Iran. And somebody said, “Well, that’s because the Russians and the Iranians have had a falling out.” They have not had a falling out. In fact, when you had the foreign minister from Iran and Russia after the 12-day conflict, you’ve got to be able to speak Russian, but people had watched it carefully, speak Russian, and read lips and so forth.
41:29 Putin at some point said to the foreign minister, “You should have let us help you.” And that was because the Iranian integrated air defense system did not perform as well as it should have. And the Russians apparently had said, “Why don’t you let us come in there and help you?” And they said, “No, we want to do this on their own.” And Putin said, “We understand you’re a proud people, but we could have helped you.”
41:51 So, I think we’re now going to see a much improved integrated air defense system thanks to direct Russian intervention in the country to do that. They only have one S400 system. So, how many do they need? And how many can they get? Well, the Russians could give them 10 or 12 if they need it.
42:10 Obviously, they’ll pay for it. But the bottom line is I see that both Russia and China have said, “We’re not going to let this state fail.” Colonel, you’ve alluded that other countries are going to start developing nuclear weapons not for dominance, but maybe as a deterrent from being attacked or maybe just as leverage. Again, if you look at North Korea, you know, they have a lot of leverage and it’s all on this possibility of using this weapon. We saw reports in the media that North Korea was ready to ship nuclear weapons to Iran.
42:40 Even I think that former Russian president even implied something like that which Trump vocally shot down. What do you make of all that posturing and what countries come to the top of mind? Again, a lot of people forget Pakistan and India have nukes and you know, people that we forget about have them. No, that’s right. I would say the following.
43:03 President Netanyahu made a statement in the Oval Office which was very important and he smiled and kind of giggled about it. He said, “We want the Libya solution for Iran.” Well, if you go back and look at the Libya solution, what it entailed was the following. First of all, we want you to give up your nuclear weapons. We want you to shut down any biological or chemical activity that may be going on.
43:32 If you do this then you can rejoin you know, the family of nations. Sanctions will be lifted, flowers will bloom, peace will rain and so forth. Well, we all know what happened. They gave up their nuclear weapons. They allowed us into the country.
43:47 We inspected all the facilities. Everything was destroyed. And what happened to Libya and Muammar Gaddafi? And Muammar Gaddafi had done everything we asked and cooperated with us fully. and his thanks or gratitude for that was to be killed painfully and horos horrifically.
44:07 So that’s what Mr. Netanyahu wants for Iran. Everyone knows that we will do whatever Israel directs or wants. So if you’re living in the region, you have a choice. You can submit to Israeli dominance and will across the region hegemony effectively because it’s backed by us because if you resist, you could be destroyed by the United States and Israel with its air power, missile power and so forth. Or you could develop a nuclear deterrent that you can unveil at the proper moment and say if you continue this we will use this.
44:48 In other words, due to Israel and the United States what Israel has done to others in the region. I am not an advocate for the proliferation of nuclear weapons and I don’t think anyone in their right mind is. But you have to carefully consider the impact of what you said earlier about North Korea’s position. What has North Korea demonstrated conclusively that if you’re someone that the West or the United States or Israel or somebody else doesn’t like and you have a nuclear weapon, you can probably survive?
45:26 Colonel, what is, what are the Saudis and the Qataris and the Emirates? What do they really think about this entire situation? Because you know Iran has been a threat for them for decades and at the same time they’re also invested in the Muslim populations in Gaza and so when they watch all of this happening, you know, where do their allegiances reside? They obviously the Houthis always give them a hard time you know ultimately what do you think they want in that region Well, remember all of these places that you mentioned all have minority Shiite populations Right.
46:02 That makes a difference. And whenever Iran has been active in the region, its preeminent focus has not been to destroy Israel, contrary to what the Israelis will tell you, or to fight us. It has been to protect and sustain the Shiite minorities. Hence, Hezbollah, remember, Hezbollah is really a creature of Israeli occupation. Nobody ever brings that up.
46:27 Hamas, you know, Mr. Netanyahu had a hand in creating Hamas as a counterbalance to the PLA authority. We could go on and on, but the point is if you go to Saudi Arabia, if you go into the Emirates, you’ll see Shiites. They are without question second-class citizens. In some cases worse, but generally second-class citizens, essentially in the same position as Russians in Eastern Ukraine. And the Iranians have worked tirelessly to try and protect those people whenever they possibly could.
47:04 I think they’ve had some success. When I was in Saudi Arabia in 1990 and 91, I had a Saudi senior officer joke that whenever they had artillery practice, they would periodically turn the guns in the direction of a Shiite settlement and lob rounds in there and they would laugh over it. I’m not sure I’d want to live in a country like that, but that’s what was going on in Saudi Arabia. I think that continues to be a permanent catalyst for conflict between Iran and its neighbors in the Persian Gulf.
47:39 Now, what do the people in Persian Gulf want? They don’t want a war. Absolutely not. These people are the most unwarlike, resolutely non-martial human beings on the planet. And remember that these are all creatures of British imperialism.
47:54 You know, what were these people doing before the British Empire arrived? You know, we all know the answer to that. It’s not pleasant. So, we have to come to terms with reality that these are creatures of Great Britain, creatures that emerged in the aftermath of the First World War. Families were picked.
48:13 They took control and they’ve enjoyed a wonderful status and a wonderful way of life because of all the money that they’ve accumulated. The gold much of it is sitting under the streets of London as we know. So no, they don’t want a war under any circumstances and they will always if they can take the path of least resistance because they know if they don’t they risk being invaded. There are plenty of people in the, you know, Saudi or Arabian peninsula who are afraid of the Turks, especially, you know, a Turkish state that is roaring back into power after all these years of absence.
48:54 And I think we’re seeing a lot of that around the world. Turkey is a civilizational state. So is Iran. So is China. So is India.
49:03 These places were all to some extent lagging behind the West for many, many centuries. That’s changed. They’re no longer lagging as they once were. And they are great powers in their own right regionally. And these are great people with a great history, great literature, great civilizations.
49:24 And they are not going to be dissuaded from ultimately playing the role they think they should. So if you’re sitting down in Riyadh, how long would it take the Turks to get to Riyadh and take over and run the place? A few days. So what are they going to do? Well, they’re going to saddle up with whomever promises to keep them in power and protect them.
49:48 Thus far, that was Great Britain. Then it became the United States. And so our insistence is if you want us to cooperate with you and help you, you need to do business with Israel because everything we do in the region is contingent on everyone’s behavior toward and cooperation with Israel. That’s what Iran is resisting. That’s why Iran has to be destroyed, frankly.
50:16 Wow. And final question, Colonel. You know, Trump is six months into the presidency pretty much. By the end of the year, what do you think he needs to do? It’s interesting because, you know, you’ve worked for presidents before and you know, oddly enough, the strike on Iran can help him pass the big beautiful bill, you know, where foreign policy goes into domestic and all the things he’s trying to do.
50:43 It’s a perception issue, a perception of power. What do you think that he’s going to do and he needs to do by the end of the year? You said it before, peace. Peace is in his interest, of course. Is there anything else that you think he needs to make sure happens or doesn’t happen in order so he can continue pushing agenda, which is what he ultimately wants?
51:04 Well, I’m a great fan and admire of Nassim Taleb, the man who coined the term black swan. He says that the new reserve currency is now gold. that the dollar is no longer a reliable store of value. Our sovereign national debt, which has been treated with contempt by everyone for decades, has reached the point of a metastasizing cancerous tumor that threatens to kill the host. People all know that, yet we refuse to deal with it.
51:36 So, when I was working with RFK Jr., he asked me to write a paper for him and for his staff that ultimately went to everybody in the Trump administration before they were elected and it was about foreign and defense policy but primarily the military and I said you need a 50% cut in military spending immediately and you do this by bringing all the forces overseas home. The reason for that is very simple. Technology has changed. And if we’ve learned nothing else from both what’s happened in eastern Ukraine as well as what happened with the Israeli Iranian 12-day war or conflict, we should have learned that precision guided munitions and missiles are almost unstoppable now.
52:26 That puts the whole force structure as it was conceived of during the Second World War at risk. And we’re still living within the structure of the Second World War. Militarily we have new technologies inside of it but the essential force structure is unchanged and we need to come to terms with reality that it’s in our interest to shed these overseas commitments to stop meddling in places like Central Asia with the goal of destabilizing or undermining Russia to stop this confrontation with the Chinese on the grounds that, well, the Chinese fishing boats and Vietnamese fishing boats are fighting it out.
53:06 Well, fine. That’s not our problem. You know, what are we doing in the South China Sea? That’s for the people that live there to sort out. And when Hegseth spoke recently in Asia and talked about this great threat from China and why everybody needs to unite against it, he got absolutely no response at all.
53:24 People sat there in shock. No one in Asia is talking about a war except us. No one in Asia wants to go to war. China is not preparing to invade Taiwan. China doesn’t want to invade Taiwan.
53:38 Doesn’t need to. The Chinese will vote themselves into China given time. They already control the parliament. It’s solely the president that’s opposed to it right now. And he represents the quote unquote Japanese/American wing.
53:53 What kind of a future does that have on Taiwan? No. We don’t want to go to war with anybody either really. And I think that’s great, President Trump’s greatest virtue. He understands there’s nothing to be gained from it.
54:06 But he’s a prisoner of forces over which he has very little control. And that’s the great danger right now that he doesn’t really control the forces that are moving in directions that are antithetical to the interest of the American people. So you’ve got to get control of spending. We haven’t done that. We’re spending more now.
54:25 As Elon Musk said, the big beautiful bill is probably going to push us over the cliff and into the abyss. I think he’s probably right. When will that happen? I don’t know. Could happen at any point in time.
54:38 Scott Bessent, who’s the Secretary of the Treasury, he’s been doing everything he can to prevent the bond market from imploding. And then you have Jerome Powell, he’s trying to sort through the interest rate issue, but he doesn’t really control interest rates. Everybody thinks, well, the Fed controls all interest rates. Interest rates take on a life of their own. And that’s what he’s concerned about, and rightly so.
55:02 We’re managing essentially a potential disaster. Yeah. And that could ruin everything. And suddenly, if you want to see the US military change and retreat from its current positions overseas go under financially and you will see it. You’ll see most of the service fleet in dry dock.
55:25 Such a massive issue and no one wants to take the pain and nobody wants to vote for someone that will create the pain and so we kick it down the road again and again and again and it’s happening right in front of our eyes on this in this bill. And I don’t see a solution to it. Colonel McGregor, thank you so much. Your insights are so unique and so to the point and I never hear these points of view anywhere else and so our viewers really appreciate it. You smile a little bit there.
55:55 Why is that? Because the mainstream media just has it all one way. Well, we have to look at the people that currently rule the roost in the West, the globalist elites and they can’t admit to any of this because to admit to it means what? Failure. Yeah.
56:12 And then fundamental change that they don’t want to face or confront for the reasons that you just outlined at the end. But when the pain arrives and the pain is coming, it’ll be very hard for them to stay in power. Then the real changes begin the hard way as you point out. I don’t know how that’ll turn out. That’s impossible to know right now.
56:33 But we have, you know, I hear this word conservative. And I always laugh. I said, ‘What have we conserved? We haven’t conserved sound money. You know, we haven’t conserved anything as far as I can tell.
56:46 So why do we use this word conservative? Where are all the conservatives? It’s a joke.’ Very well said, Colonel McGregor. Thank you so much for your time.
56:55 I hope we can talk again soon and wishing you all the best. Same to you, Brian. Bye-bye. Thank you. Bye-bye and take care everyone.
57:02 We’ll see you
