Israel’s election has ended in deadlock. Britain gets a budget squeezed by the Iran war. Oil is back above $111 after a missile claim against Saudi Arabia’s biggest refinery. The world’s AI money is gathering in Dubai. And scientists have filmed spiders sleeping in two stages, one of them a lot like ours. Five stories today, and what our guests have told me about each one.
Israel: deadlock, and the Arab parties hold the key
Yesterday I told you Israel’s vote was too close to call. It still is. With most of the vote counted, Netanyahu’s bloc has 53 seats and Gadi Eisenkot’s bloc has 48. Neither is anywhere near the 61 needed to govern. Likud is still the biggest single party with 26 seats, ahead of Eisenkot’s Yashar! on 21, and the lead has swung back and forth through the count. The surprise is the two Arab parties. They almost doubled their projected seats to 19, which could make them the kingmakers. Until a coalition forms, Israel may stay under a caretaker government.
Palestinian leaders have tried to shape an Israeli election before. Jim Rickards was travelling in the region in late 1999, with Netanyahu facing Ehud Barak: “the word went out from Arafat to the Palestinians, hey, calm down. We don’t want any bombings or terrorism or anything because we want Barak to get elected.” Barak won.
▶ Watch Jim Rickards on the 1999 election from 29:59
Twenty-seven years later, Arab voters may decide the outcome without anyone having to keep quiet. Watch the coalition maths over the next few weeks.
Budget day: when taxes rise, people move
Britain’s Chancellor John Healey presents his first Budget today, and he’s doing it with borrowing costs climbing and inflation rising, largely because of the US-Iran war. He has promised to fully fund the defence plan, add £10 billion of support for Ukraine and keep the cash ISA allowance at £20,000. The money has to come from somewhere.
Here’s what I’ve learned living in both cities: every time London gets more expensive, people move. When I sat down with Ben Bandari, one of Dubai’s top property brokers, he told me just how many: “You have 1,000 families moving to Dubai weekly. Not 1,000 people, 1,000 families.” And why? “Because of tax reasons, because of safety, because of security, because of crime, because they want to park their money somewhere safe.”
▶ Watch Ben Bandari on who’s moving to Dubai from 8:05
Budgets are about numbers, but people decide with their feet. Watch the reaction to today’s tax measures.
Oil back above $111
Brent crude climbed above $111 a barrel after Yemen’s Houthis claimed a missile strike on Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery, which can process 550,000 barrels a day. Saudi Arabia hasn’t confirmed any damage, and Aramco says a fire near the terminal was contained and operations weren’t affected. But the market is nervous for good reason. Attacks on shipping have cut flows through the Strait of Hormuz to around 8.5 million barrels a day, from more than 20 million, and there are reports Washington has told Gulf states to prepare for a short campaign against Iran after next week’s midterms.
Why does a missile claim in the Gulf move prices everywhere? Dan Peña spent his career in the oil business, and he put it simply: “Oil, it costs about two bucks to get the oil from discovery to extraction. In America, it’s 52 bucks… you can almost dig it with your hand.”
▶ Watch Dan Peña on Gulf oil from 59:18
That’s the cheapest oil on earth. When it’s threatened, nobody else can replace it at that price, which is why a single missile claim moves the whole market.
The world’s AI money comes to Dubai
Global AI leaders are gathering in Dubai this week as the emirate pushes its AI ambitions. At the same time, OpenAI is reported to be raising up to $30 billion at a $1.25 trillion valuation, led by UAE investors alongside Coatue, ahead of a planned IPO. The round hasn’t been formally announced, and terms are still being negotiated.
Why here? Saqr Ereiqat, who helped build one of the region’s biggest tech ecosystems, told me it comes down to three things: “It’s talent, it’s capital, and it’s infrastructure.” On capital: “Ray Dalio, Brevan Howard, all of them, they’re moving their capital over here… And with that, what directly follows is the talent.”
▶ Watch Saqr Ereiqat on why the capital comes to Dubai from 6:02
When the money that’s backing the world’s most valuable private AI company comes from the Gulf, the map of AI isn’t just Silicon Valley any more.
Even spiders can’t skip sleep
Researchers at the University of Bonn filmed Australian jumping spiders for days and nights with infrared cameras, and found two distinct stages of sleep. One of them looks a lot like our REM sleep, with twitching eyes and muscles. The study, published in PNAS, is based on behaviour rather than brain recordings, so whether spiders dream is still an open question.
But here’s the point for the rest of us. If a creature that small has evolved to switch off and risk being eaten, sleep must matter. Matthew Walker, the neuroscientist behind Why We Sleep, told me: “if sleep doesn’t serve an absolutely vital function, it is the biggest mistake the evolutionary process has ever made.” And then the line I’ve never forgotten: “I’ve met some of the most incredible athletes, billionaires, rock stars around the world, and not one of them has ever told me that they skimp on their sleep.”
▶ Watch Matthew Walker on why sleep is vital from 34:14
Forget the gadgets and the supplements. If you want one self-improvement habit that actually works, protect your sleep.
Tonight
The Fed announces its rate decision at 7pm UK time, and a hold is widely expected. Then Alphabet and Microsoft report after the US close, and everyone will be listening for what they say about AI spending.
Which of these stories are you watching? Tell me on X at @brianbrose.
P.S. OpenAI’s round shows how private deals really get done: through relationships, not a brokerage account. That’s how our AI Investment Club works. And the families Ben Bandari describes don’t want an off-plan apartment and a three-year wait. They want a finished ultra-luxury home they can move into now. That’s what our Luxury Property Investment Circle builds.
This is commentary, not financial or medical advice. Do your own research.
