Willy Woo - Watching Crypto Make Its Mark On Society

Full transcript: Willy Woo on London Real

2:48 This is London Real. I am Brian Rose. My guest today is Willy Woo, the crypto pioneer, analyst, investor and technologist. You are the author of the Bitcoin Forecast newsletter, where you offer subscribers the latest Bitcoin price trend predictions and macro analysis of the cryptocurrency market with over 700,000 investors following your insights, you’ll become one of the most influential commentators in the space in 2021, Cointelegraph named you as one of their top 100 figures in the blockchain industry.

3:17 You believe that Bitcoin will experience a big rally in the first quarter of this year and feel confident it will reach 100,000 at some point in 2022. Willy, welcome to London Real. Thank you, Brian. Please be here, Willy. It’s great having you here.

3:33 It’s nice to know that you’re a fan of our interior design as well and some of our chairs here that you have over there as well. Willy, I’m super excited to talk to you. You know, I spent 15 years on Wall Street, in the City of London, here, and quite honestly, I don’t know if I’ve ever heard anybody speak as intelligently about the financial markets as you, not to mention blockchain. So I’m really excited to talk to you today. I want to talk about your whole journey in this space since 2013, maybe how the fundamentals of this market have intrinsically changed and what you do with on-chain analysis.

4:07 But before we get to that, well, maybe we should talk about the elephant in the room, which everyone’s asking you right now, and I guess maybe we can address to get it out of the way. Is Bitcoin set for a massive rally? Is this a bear market? What should people expect for the rest of the year? Well, it’s at the start of the year.

4:25 We’ve come out of a very, very soft December where we’ve got a lot of institutions selling down, taking their profits, and that has caused the price to come down substantially in a very weak kind of month where there’s not a lot of liquidity in the market. But overall, if you would look at who holds the coins, they’re held by relatively strong holders, and it’s very cyclical. You know, the coins move from people who hold it for a long time to a whole bunch of new people and we’re now in this kind of peak where the long-term holders have most of the coins, so usually they don’t want to sell, right?

5:05 They’re not going to sell until, you know, there’s some profit to be made. So, you know, in a typical structure like this you kind of expect once the sort of consolidation that we’re in will be in sideways chop for quite a long time. Once that sort of completes, we can expect price to go higher just because so many coins are held by the guys that are not selling until they realize profit. So it’s a pretty strong structure right now, even though the markets, and you know, short-term fear because it’s come down from, you know, was it 69,000 to now, like, as low as 39,000.

5:43 But that for Bitcoin is, you know, the typical volatility. Long term, in the macro sense of this market. We’re still in a bull rally, or bull structure at least. So yeah, it should be a good year. And did I quote you right, as you thinking that, you know, we could still hit that hundred thousand dollars this year?

6:08 I mean, maybe not Q1 or Q2, but it’s still something that you see in your analysis? Yeah, I think it’s very very possible. We all we need to do is break the, you know, the kind of all-time highs around the high 60s. And then it moves, you know, because we’ve been consolidating around or below the high 60s for, well, it’s been almost a good part of the year. So when you have that amount of time agreeing, the price is solid around the, you know, I think it’s a one trillion dollar evaluation for this market.

6:45 It’s very healthy, right? It’s like a lot of price discovery at the 50,000 plus range which values between it one trillion dollars so you know, once that’s agreed on for a long time we break higher. Usually it does a step change up. We head there and tail end of 2020, so you see Bitcoin does this these sort of huge rallies, and then it sort of waits around for a while to consolidate. And so yeah, I think once we break all-time highs this year after such a long consolidation you know, going from 69,000 to 100,000, it’s only like, it’s barely 50 cent gain.

7:31 That’s nothing for Bitcoin. Yeah, that’s really good analysis. Willy, talk to me about what you just said. Is in that maybe there’s something healthy about this consolidation? I have like over 500 students in my DeFi Academy, and they’re always saying, like, you know, why does it have to come off, and why does there have to be this much pain?

7:49 And sometimes I have that discussion that you know, this is a sign of actually building support levels, of finding out where people are in and out of trades, and that maybe without even some of this consolidation we wouldn’t see the 100k price or we wouldn’t see it last as long as it does. Do you agree with that sentiment, or how do you explain to people that concept? Yeah, because when you think about the market, you’ve got, it’s a menagerie of animals, right?

8:17 You’ve got the long-term holders like maybe Michael Saylor who’s stacking this coin for his company for the next 100 years, right? So every coin he buys, that kind of person is not going to sell. You’ve got the hardcore long-term investors, the medium-term investors, and then you’ve got the short-term investors. And then you’ve got these different types of people, like people who are new and don’t understand it, and others that are really solid in their understanding and their investment in this market, and so whenever the price rallies you’re gonna have, like, for starters, the guys that are new to it, they’re gonna go, “I’ve never seen profits like this, I’m taking profit.”

9:02 They sell, and as the thing starts to sell down, like people get scared and lower. The newer guys will like get shaken out of the market, so every time we go downwards we’re testing the lows and we’re effectively shaking out, you know, we call it weak hands, but basically the guys that get freaked out, and so at every price level you’ve got to consolidate and make sure people are holding this asset long-term solid investors, and the guys, they’re going to sell on the earliest sort of profit or the earlier signs of loss, they have to be shaken out of the market. And so you know, that’s why you get these steep changes.

9:48 You go up, you shake out the traders, you shake out the short-term guys, the guys that are new to the market, and even they learn over a long kind of period of time being in the market. You know, this kind of volatility within this emerging asset class is very normal. So you don’t get up forever, right? You have to always test those highs with new lows. Well, usually a high, hello, hopefully, and yeah, so we need time for the market to settle on the price, and furthermore you know, like underlying this, it’s just more and more money is coming into the market.

10:30 And if you think of Bitcoin as like this bucket, right? It’s a bucket that people still value in like equities or real estate, but it’s a special one, that it’s storing value online, you know. So it’s internet programmable and it can be transmitted borderlessly. It’s a kind of new asset class, and so everything like this where you’re getting adoption, and the internet has seen a huge adoption, right? It’s created an adoption S-curve.

11:00 Well, Bitcoin’s the same, right? Well, we’re doing an adoption escort, so it roughly doubles every year. It has been doubling every year in terms of the number of people that are exposed to this asset, and it’s been doing that for like 13 years, so we’re in exponential growth, at least in the number of people holding it. And so the price will go up. It’s just a matter of time for the market to effectively value this adoption curve, and that takes time, and the market’s very irrational in the short term, so you get ups and downs and you know, like we can talk about how things are changing in the market, and so it’s becoming a lot more complex, and you’re starting to see a little bit more volatility than you would have normally expected just by the way the market works.

11:59 Now, yeah, and I want to talk about some of that in the on-chain analysis. I mean, you just basically said we’re experiencing doubling of growth every year in a piece of technology that’s exponential growth. This is pretty much the fastest adoption of a technology in human history. It actually even dwarfs internet and mobile phone adoption, and it’s something, is that correct? And it’s also something that us as humans we really can’t process, can we?

12:26 I know it’s, it’s like, I don’t think anyone really sees what’s happening right now and its full consequences. We can only guess, but you know, it’s like, safely above 2% of the world. I’m in this asset, so figure that out. You know, a year later, four percent, a year later, eight percent, a year later, we’re above one-eighth of the world holding this asset class, one half of the world, and four or five years, right? I do expect that to take, because it can’t double beyond the population of the planet, but that’s what you see.

13:07 This exponential curve goes up and then it does an S, right? And it tapers off, so you know, put that in perspective. The rate that it’s claiming, or the store of value in this asset class is going to rival the US dollar emt money supply. It’s on track to potentially get much higher than that, and so that’s geopolitical. It’s geopolitical, it’s like nation states are founded on, well, not let’s say funded, not founded, but funded by two sources of income.

13:50 One is the taxes that’s levied on the people in the companies, and the other one is the ability to create the hidden tax, which is to print more money to fund the system. and so when you have this currency that is borderless and is one of the challenges to a reserve currency. We are now having the very first of the small, you know, like say El Salvador holding reserves in this currency. It’s kind of removing one of the pillars of funding a nation. So it’s a very interesting time.

14:34 I don’t know exactly where it will take us, but this combined with the ability to build businesses online, we’ve got money that punches right through national barriers, and they’re not showing any allegiance to any nation state that exists on the internet. Wow, that’s like a complete, you know, it’s a story of a sci-fi novel, and I don’t know what that’s gonna be, but like I kind of think that we keep talking about, like, what is the next superpower? Is China going to be the next superpower?

15:14 We talk about the year one, we talked about the US dollar, but I don’t think many people talk about, hey, what if we’re moving into a new time? You know, what if, what if what if this is really the digital revolution really is as profound as the industrial revolution or the agricultural revolution and every one of those revolutions was a power structure change from, you know, to gatherers to our first kingdoms, you know in a feudal system to an industrial kind of world, which dictated nation-state power structures, and if this is as profound as those big revolutions you know, nation states aren’t going to be around in the same form as they are now, and we’re going to move into a new kind of governance, a new kind of power structure, and the rate of which Bitcoin is growing, this online money which is kind of the final league in the still of the internet.

16:19 We never had an online money before that completes this digital revolution. So I think it’s very, very profound. I haven’t haven’t really met many people talking about what that actually means, because you know, I think a lot of the conversations we have about the future there’s kind of a projection of the past, like regulations, for example, regulations at nation state how are they going to regulate the new DeFi stuff, you know, or cryptocurrencies but the white rate which is growing, I’m like, going, are we going to have nation states?

17:03 It’s, I’m flipping it, you know. It’s an unpredictable time, and it’s incredibly exciting to be in this industry to be at the forefront of seeing. I don’t know what’s going to happen, but it’s going to be interesting. Do you think this is the most exciting time to be alive as a human ever? I think so.

17:22 I think it’s always the most, you know, like, I mean, if I was born in the near, like like kind of the caveman times, you know, my life would have been the same as it was a hundred thousand years ago. Well, every sort of decade is profoundly different from the pride right now. Yeah, so yeah, it is important to think about, like you said, some of these concepts in the future, and I guess as humans we always view the future through the lens of a past, and we kind of project out, and it’s of course never the case not to mention throw in exponential growth of something it all goes out the window but if you look even a few hundred years ago, Willy, you know, the nation state in Europe didn’t really exist.

18:02 I mean, how long has Germany been a country, Italy been a country? You know, I was doing what the queen and king told me to do here a couple hundred years ago, and so the even the concept of a nation state is newer than we think. You mentioned the industrial revolution, which I’ll take credit for here in the UK, you know, but Dan Tapiero from 10T Holdings with me, and he said, he said, Brian, you know, Bitcoin’s a bit like the steam engine. You know, it’s this piece of technology that, you know, you can’t put the genie back in the bottle.

18:30 It fundamentally changed our entire human experience. It was also democratized. Anybody could build the steam engine anywhere, and as you alluded to, it actually redistributed wealth and power structures all around the world. Now we’ve got this digital money, as you said, almost the completion of what we always hope the internet would be. What does that mean?

18:50 Like you said, for our power structures and again, this is stuff we talk about a lot on the show. You know, you fundamentally look at how does the nation state stay in control? It’s ultimately about the money. I mean, there’s laws, but they control people with money, and the people don’t even know they’re being controlled by that money. So this future you’re talking about, it’s sometimes hard to put in perspective, because everybody’s worried about the price of this and the latest coin and the DeFi protocols, which is all very interesting, but like you said, you take a step back and look to what the future would be.

19:22 It can be a very different planet in the next 20, 30 years because of bitcoin and blockchain. Yeah, and it is absolutely unpredictable. I think it’s, we don’t really have a handle on this, and you know, I like this metaphor because people say, what do you think? What are the apps they’re going to be built on Bitcoin, or, you know, Ethereum, or any of these defined networks. And you know, we’re seeing remittances, we’re seeing lending, we’re seeing very much like the kind of finance we see on on in the financial world that’s traditional, that brought onto a digital landscape, and it really just reminds me of the internet transition and the TV transition and all these transitions.

20:20 It was like something I remember listening to, a Steve Jobs you know, interview, and he was asked about, like, where do you see computers moving to? What, what is this? There’s a new form of media. And he said that, like, if you look at TV when we invented it, the first thing we put on TV was radio, effectively a radio show with pictures, and it took 20 years to create sitcom. And he said, at the start of the computer age for the masses, he said you know, these Apple computers, they’re going to be connected together.

21:01 It’s a new form of media, and I don’t know what it’ll produce. It’ll take 20 years. He said this in the 90s. It would take 20 years for us to figure out the medium for the web. And, you know, that turned out to be social media, but that was not known about at the time these computers being made.

21:20 And so we’re making crypto networks now. We’re making Bitcoin, making defined networks and we’re putting on radio, pictures. You know, lending, this is like remittance. So the same sort of stuff that savings, you know, the same sort of stuff that we do in the traditional space, but it will take, um, you know, two decades from its inception to find its form. If history, tells us, you know, it’s going to repeat.

21:47 And we’re kind of halfway there now. We’re starting to see some pretty interesting stuff in the DeFi world. Seeing stuff like, in the gaming world, and I think these experiments are interesting, because they’re leading us to non-obvious answers that we couldn’t have dreamed of, like perhaps like 10 years ago. And I think, yeah, we don’t know yet. Like this, that’s an interesting point around this innovation how things are moving forward is that, it’s one step leads to the next, but we’re not sure what the next step will be.

22:27 Yeah, there’s a famous futurist named Marshall McLuhan. I’m sure you’ve heard of his stuff, and he has a concept called the medium is the message. And if anybody is familiar with this or not, I’ll try to briefly explain it, and he basically says every time you introduce a new medium, it’s actually the message embodied in that medium. And yet our first version is to copy the old medium. So, like you said, when we went from radio to television, we tried to kind of reproduce that old media on this new medium, and we said, okay, television is going to be like movies in your house.

23:05 Now, fast forward 20 years, and television became a member of the family, on 24 hours a day, our news source, our fun source. You know, we make love to the television. We cry to the television. In The Simpsons, Maggie Simpson is hugging the television, right? Because it’s a new medium.

23:21 Now, fast forward to the internet. We looked at YouTube, and it’s like, oh, YouTube is just videos online. Wrong, right? 10 years ago, I started a YouTube channel, and that interactivity literally changed the course of my life, because it was, like you said, social media engagement, direct feedback. It was definitely not movies, TV on demand.

23:40 It was like a whole nother social structure, like you said, and the medium again is the message. Look at the medium as opposed to the message itself. Now, fast forward to Bitcoin or blockchain. You know, value transfer. This is a whole new medium.

23:55 And like you said, what we traditionally do as humans is we take the old version and stick it on that. So like you said, borrowing and lending, which we’ve been doing since the Medici age. Now we stick it up on the blockchain. And like you said, that’s what we do as humans, but the future lies in some iteration that we can’t even conceive of, and we see little snippets of that with the NFT explosions, right? And these other things where we’re like, oh wow, I didn’t know that there was value there.

24:20 And then you see it. But just curious, your thoughts on that concept of the medium? And then it’s hard for people to kind of understand that, right? It’s quite a philosophical concept. Yeah, it kind of reminds me of, like, when the internet came out, the network is the computer.

24:41 I, yeah, I don’t have much more thoughts of that. I’m just like sitting on the sidelines going, what’s next? Because this is really interesting stuff. And you don’t know how it works. It’s very hard to sit here and think where we’re going to go in the next 10 years.

25:01 Like, because it really, it’s an exploration of this meeting, right? It’s And I mean, I was around from the web age going into social media, and, you know, we were like building, you know, initially I would write newsletters back home, and I was traveling, and I was like, oh, I’m going to build a website, I’ll build a website so that, you know, like I was, I was actually like sending it from a little Palm Pilot, and it would upload and send to my friends and then later I booked a website that would upload it to the website, and the website would relate to friends, and it would, you know, publish it on a, on the website, and then that was actually the first form of a blog, and it was a, and we didn’t know there were blogs at the time, that there was, there were everyone’s creating home pages, and then we started automating it, and then, and then we started connecting these blogs together and making comments on each other’s blogs, and that was like the first stage of social media, you know.

26:05 Within the long term, it was the next step, right? To do it, MySpace and Facebook which was amalgamated in one spot. And I think that progression applies to Bitcoin itself, right? It’s, or crypto, we should say. We, we build stuff, and then we try experiments, and then, it actually, it’s a conversation you know, like there’s a conversation between the developers, they’re building the stuff, and the guys that are using it, and the innovation is not just some smart team that decides they’re going to build some sort of app, and then they get traction or not.

26:44 It’s usually they build something, it gets traction, and then there’s a conversation with its user base, and then a behavioral pattern happens, which we never knew before because we never talked on this medium, and we’re exploring it, and then, you know, the next thing jumps along, and it’s very sort of iterative. And, you know, I guess, it’s a conversation. It’s a conversation with technology and the different parts of the user base. I like that word, a conversation, and maybe that’s what Web 3.0 is.

27:23 You know, when people think about Web 2.0, there’s that famous Steve Jobs line where they say, where he said, I think the customer will know what they want when I give it to him. Right? It was like, you know, these, you know, leaders that would actually create the product and then deliver it, and then the consumers would know they want it. I feel like that’s a little bit of the web old 2.0 world, where you had, you know, a few highly capitalized companies that owned all the value that, you know, to a certain extent, would choose what they’re going to develop, whereas with Web 3.0, like you said, I mean, it’s much more of a conversation.

27:57 I’ve had people like Stani Kulechov here in my studio, and I’m like, standing, what’s next for AAVE, and he’s like, Brian, I don’t know. My job is to come to work every day and build the best code possible so my community uses it in a creative way that I don’t even know what they’re going to do with it. I’m not, you know, the Steve Jobs guy telling where this is going to go. I’m here like you said, almost having a conversation. And I feel like that’s the future of Web 3.0.

28:22 I don’t know if everyone’s going to be comfortable embracing that, because it’s not what we’ve been doing the last couple hundred years in capitalism, but it feels like that’s where we’re going. Well, it’s, you know, I can’t understand Steve Jobs’ thing, like, um, that’s, that’s predicated on, um, the technology to do this to deliver, say, an iPhone is really, really quite hard. And the consumers don’t know what is possible or what isn’t, so usually there’s that.

28:52 I’ll deliver this groundbreaking thing, and then you’ll know you want it. But once you get over that, right? Say an iPhone comes out, and then there’s this whole platform which people can have their conversation and build apps and do that. And Bitcoin’s the same, like, toxication of moto to figure out, we can put this money online, and then now the conversation’s happening, and like, the conversation, that’s the most exciting bit, right? That’s the, that’s the world-changing bit.

29:23 You get non-obvious answers that absolutely change the world beyond just, like, here’s a peer-to-peer payment system, and its outset is really just repeating what we’ve got in the physical world by putting it into the digital world. It’s, it’s kind of that copy, right? But yeah, incredibly important, and then now that it’s out there, you’re right, now it can be developed and iterated and expanded. Um, it, yeah, I don’t know why this just came to my head, but I gotta ask you, like, who is Satoshi?

29:57 Does it matter? Will those Bitcoin ever move? But if anyone, I should ask is probably you, Willy. Uh, I, I, well, it’s, you know, it’s curiosity. You know, I don’t think it really matters too much.

30:13 It doesn’t matter if this person is alive and he’s gonna sell all his coins. Um, I, I kind of think that out of all the candidates, Finney is probably the one that’s most likely if it’s any of these candidates. Just because he passed, and the timing is somewhat around the same time, and like it’s just really hard for a founder who has gone down the rabbit hole and spent so many years of his life to build something, to just walk away from it. And like he says, I’m going on to other things.

30:54 It’s to me, it sounded like, you know, he might not have long to live. Like if you’re a startup guy, and I’ve done startups before, but you’re doing something like that that impressive and is getting traction, you don’t walk away from that. That’s, it’s like the most exciting time, so, yeah, I think maybe it was Hal Finney, if there is anyone on the candidates list, right? And probably and he’s now dead, and that would explain some of the behavior, because like you said, it would take an incredibly disciplined person to not talk about it, not claim it, not move the Bitcoin.

31:37 And like you said, by definition the person that created this is the type of person who isn’t that person, right? It’s not a Navy SEAL. It’s not a Stoic. It’s not a monk on a mountain somewhere. So in your opinion, the behavior seems to correlate with someone who’s no longer with us?

31:54 Yeah, and he did claim some coins, right? He, he mined substantial amounts, which he has passed on to his kids, now and they are very well off. So you know, there’s a stack that was mined by some guy that we don’t know who it is. Satoshi is another state by how funny, and it could be the same person. Um, obviously, the first bunch of coins didn’t take a lot of compute because there wasn’t a lot of people to compete for that mining, and it was really there just to support the network’s operation.

32:28 It kind of makes sense, anyway. How many Bitcoin does, you know, Satoshi or the founder hold right now and about a million. It’s about a million. It’s about 5% of the entire fully diluted coin count, but more if you consider, you know, like 3.7 million of the coins have already been lost, one million, the Satoshi’s three count has been lost, so, yeah, so one million for Satoshi, another 3.7 million that are lost. 2.7 in addition.

33:03 So the actual full number of coins that will be on the network that are still living and can be moved is around, it’s going to be around 17 million. So that’s the real supply and not 21. Yeah, well, and this is a perfect segue into what you actually do, Willy, and maybe we can explain it to people that might not even understand what on-chain analysis is. But, you know, when I worked on Wall Street in the 90s, you know, the reason we made a lot of money is because of what Gary Gensler calls the, asymmetry of information, right?

33:38 The reason a lot of industries existed is because you controlled the information flow. So when I was on Wall Street, we would do trades all day, off-balance-sheet derivatives trades, swaps, exotic options, and other things, even Treasury trades. And the rule was, you don’t ever tell anyone about it. Like, you never talk about your trades. Like, it got to be such a bad point, Willy, where I would not even want to tell this, the Starbucks person, my coffee order, because I was so used to secrecy, right?

34:06 Because, you know, by controlling the information, it meant that nobody knew what you were doing, and therefore you could kind of take advantage of knowing things other people didn’t know. And so, especially in the derivatives market, where everything’s off balance sheet, there’s no futures exchange, there’s no way to track it, and that was traditionally how a lot of financial markets operated. You know, fast forward to this incredible innovation with the blockchain.

34:30 I mean, quite literally, everything is public and trackable, to such an extent I think sometimes people forget that in not only Bitcoin but other DeFi protocols. I mean, I had a hot wallet person in here the other day, and he’s like, you know, when you plug in with MetaMask, we see everything, and it was just a reminder and it’s a reminder of what you do, Willy. I mean, you literally track the flows of all those 17 million Bitcoin, what they’re doing, how they’re behaving, where they are, how frequently they’re trading, and maybe you could explain to people just the fact that that’s a massive innovation, what it shows you, downsides, upsides.

35:07 Yeah, it’s like, it’s a very unique, um, field in finance that only pertains to blockchain assets, particularly Bitcoin, because Bitcoin is the largest, most organic network. So when you get data from this blockchain, it’s millions and millions and millions of people using it, and so you’ll find that the data is more organic and predictable, and, you know, effectively, you know, there’s many ways you can use this blockchain data. You can use it, for example, for some of the stuff we’ve already talked about, about the adoption rate.

35:44 How quickly is this asset growing? How many more users are coming on board? You know, you can forensically cluster all of the addresses that hold Bitcoin together into what looks like individual individuals managing their account, and so you can count the growth of those accounts and seeing how many new users are coming on. You can track which ones are exchanges, custody providers, miners. So these, the whole ecosystem becomes resolved, and some of the things that we do for forecasting is, look at, like, you know, what I like the most is look at demand and supply on chain, and what I mean by that is you’ve got many different types of investors, and you know it turns out you can look at the behavioral kind of behavioral kind of investment activity they’ve done in the past, and you can kind of make predictions based on that.

36:54 So, for example, where I see it, like, a lot of long-term holders have had holding most of the coins right now. That’s a behavioral pattern. The coins have moved to people that are holding for more than five months. Over a very good majority share, we know probabilistically that people who have held Bitcoin for longer than five months have a, can steep drop-off, and their, like, probability that they’ll sell in any one day. So, that means that this, the demand is quite high in a macro sense, compared to the, the supply, because those guys aren’t selling.

37:33 And you can even go down to the individual cohorts of investors. You’ve got the guys that continue to stack, the guys that stack but sometimes trade, and the other guys they always zero out. They buy it and they sell, and so they’re different behaviors, and you can sort of draw a demand and supply, like chart on it, and it turns out it’s quite predictive on the price. So that’s one way you can look at, you know, what do people pay for their coins across the whole market.

38:05 All these sort of interesting analysis you can do on chain. And so when we look at, you know, say Wall Street and we look at equities, we might have a price earnings ratio, and you know, there’s a few people that think Bitcoin’s just a speculative asset, no fundamentals, but actually these are the fundamentals. The like the first on-chain signal I created was one of the very first full start was called NBT and NVT. It measures the ratio of Bitcoin’s valuation compared to the volume, effectively the investment activity happening within that blockchain.

38:46 Like, the volume is very much an indicator of one investor moving coins to another investor, so that’s a new investor coming in and buying. So whenever you got a high valuation to very little the best volume, it’s like the high P ratio over-valuing that share for very little, you know, earnings, and that stock. And then you get these other times where it’s a huge amount of investment activity and the price hasn’t rallied, you know, the valuation hasn’t increased, so it became a very good indicator for looking for an undervaluation, overvaluation.

39:26 So let’s just give you an idea of what we do on the blockchain, and we look at what is happening between the investors, and we try and compare that to what’s happening with the market price. So sometimes the market’s out, like, completely missing the point of what the fundamental investors are doing, and so by monitoring, like, the MBT, you can kind of see when things kind of look cheap or look expensive. And over long enough cycles, you find your models quite predictable until something shocks it, but otherwise it’s shockingly predictable.

40:01 For you, I know you’re a mechanical engineer like me and you’ve probably seen something that holds up. Yeah, and you can, you can get to these, this analysis. We’re like, wow, this is really interesting. The price, like, for example, in 2019 to 2020, the price was chopping around sideways for ten thousand dollars at ten thousand dollars for a very long time, and meanwhile coins were being scooped up off the exchanges and they were being piled into the hands of, you know, the HODLers.

40:32 They were not selling; they were just buying, buying, buying. Turned out later that was MicroStrategy and Michael Saylor and his cohort and many other high net worth people were stacking this coin. Meanwhile, the discussion was, we’ve just had the code crash. Bitcoin’s moving up and down with equities, gold was starting to look strong, and people were saying it was a failed, it was a failed safe haven it’s, you know, like, and meanwhile the buying activity was there.

41:06 It was absolutely there, and I wrote this article that said, look, this whole thing’s going to decouple from equities. Because, you know, using one of the valuation metrics I was using was like a director of the MBT to provide, effectively, a price point of where the fundamental investors were going. You kind of had this valuation of where the fundamental investors will step in and buy, and then almost a speculative premium that’s chopping and going all over the place.

41:41 So this speculative premium was chopping all over the place in correlation to the equities, but that floor was coming up and up and up, and I was like, okay, this is going to get squeezed out. I’m going to get a squeeze, and we’re going to decouple completely, and a certain point equities went down, Bitcoin just rallied, and then we kind of entered into the tail between 20 and, between 5x, and then there are a short few months. What does that feel like?

42:08 You could see that coming. You know, you can see it coming. Yeah, what does that feel like, Willy, when you can actually see something coming? You’re looking at the numbers, you step back and do first principles and say, okay, am I crazy? No, I’m not crazy.

42:19 Then you put an article about it, and then you watch it actually manifest. What does that feel like? You know, it’s mixed, you know, because I’ve been doing it a while, but because I’m putting a lot of the stuff out, sometimes it’s actually relief. But, you know, it’s also, you know, very, very satisfying, and often very, very profitable. So, it’s usually good vibes all around, relief, like, fun, and, you know, everyone loves a rally.

42:58 So yeah, and I think I remember in the 2018 bear market I was using the same sort of on-chain stuff to say that we haven’t done, we haven’t bottomed, and you know, while everyone was in pain, I had the fortune of going, at least I’m building reputation here, as it’s crashing. You know, it wasn’t fun for all of us to see the asset class drop, but, you know, at least it wasn’t all lost, and, so you know, it’s, it’s, I guess it’s satisfying. I guess that particularly, again, you know, because we’re in a conversation world with social media, so once you put stuff out and it’s enjoyable to create content and engage with people, you also put yourself on the line there.

43:48 If you’re going to do anything of value, it’s got to be falsifiable. So you put stuff out there, and if you’re wrong, you’re wrong. It’s always nice to get it right. So yeah, yeah, let’s talk about that, because you have a massive presence on Twitter. Everybody should follow you.

44:06 You’ve got a pinned post up there that compares, I think, where we are now to, like, 1997 and the internet, and in four years from now, we’ll be like 2005 on the internet. But, like, you’re active on Twitter, Willy, and how important is that conversation there? You know, is that as important as some of the analysis you do? And also, like, that’s a whole nother mindset to deal with when you’ve got to interact socially and on social media with people you know.

44:33 How do you find that as an important part of the equation for what you do? It’s, it’s, it’s like this huge pros and, and some, some cons as well, right? So, I mean, I don’t think I would learn as, as readily without it. Like, that conversation helps me think better. Like when I put stuff out, stuff comes back.

44:54 You have comments, but then it kind of shapes my thinking as well. Reading often reading other people I follow, thoughts and data. I go and, like, I will mix that with something I’m doing, and I’ll put some house out, and that conversation just pushes me forward to do more and more research, because research is one of these things that can get pretty monotonous if you’re in a, you know, a black box and, and not engaging with people that are appreciating it.

45:26 So it’s really shaped my career. I, I mean, I was, I was working on, like, one of my tech ventures, and, started with this bitcoin stuff, and started tweeting, and it got picked up, and it encouraged me to do more, right, and do more research. You get that dopamine hit, right, from social media likes, so that, that really, I think, has shaped a lot of my career. This, the recent career, and, having that reach also has allowed, a lot of extra things to be built on top of that, so you know, even with the Bitcoin Forecast, which is my Arc Intelligence leader, there’s no way they would have launched without about, like, having a Twitter following.

46:12 And, you know, and then on the downside, you do get a lot of flame wars and trolls and toxicities. So, and even that’s great, because I mean, I think as we go through life, it’s good to build a thick skin and put yourself out there, like it was very, very scary to put my research up there in 2016 when I started posting. Some of my research was like, wow, that’s that’s a whole world out there, right? And like, I’m from New Zealand originally, and we’re a very small country, and we have this kind of, like, don’t you know, like so we call it tall poppy syndrome.

46:51 Don’t play it, because you get chopped down, but also you have this village mindset even if you do something great, you only did it in your village, so it doesn’t count for much. But you put it out on Twitter, it’s the whole world, and so if they like it, then you go, well, I got validated. Um, if they don’t like it, I got shot down, but it’s the world and not my village. And so I think through that, it’s helped me go, well, I’m not New Zealand standard, this is actually, and the stuff I’m putting out is going out to the world if it can pick up, it’s global, so it helped me get out of that Kiwi mindset.

47:28 And I think that’s been a big part of my growth, as to social media being a global platform has helped me think about, well, what can I do on a global scale? It’s made me more confident. You can be ambitious but not really confident, but, you know, some sort of internal esteem that has been built, um, not only from being things being picked up and liked, but also being bashed. That’s important as well. So yeah, I think overall it’s been a huge positive in my life, and it very much shaped the last, you know, seven years of my career.

48:11 It’s impressive that you could push through that mental pain barrier. It’s probably because you’re an engineer, honestly, because I did the same thing. I’m actually quite introverted, and 10 years ago I started putting myself on YouTube. And, you know, with all my students, I always try to force them to publish, like, post the vlog, post the piece of content, because you can record it, but if you don’t post it, you’ll never really get the feedback. You’ll never have to put it on the line.

48:38 I mean, Dr. Dre can work on an album for 10 years, but until you publish it and get the feedback, you don’t grow as an artist, do you? Right? And so, and most people, though, are too terrified of the reaction, because, you know, all sorts of reasons. You know, they’re so emotionally wrapped up in other people’s opinion. Everybody has a Kiwi syndrome to a certain extent, right?

48:59 Of different blocks in your mind where you’re like, actually, let me stay out of the spotlight, but if you do publish your learning curve can go exponential, and again, you’re exposed to some downside, some hate, which ultimately makes you stronger, and you’re exposed to the upside. I personally think that hate is just love in disguise. It just got twisted to the frequency. I don’t know. I’d love to get your opinions on that.

49:24 Totally, yeah. Well, talk to me about hate. Like, you know, what is, you know, haters? How how is that embodied versus people that love you online? How do you look at that as a perspective?

49:34 Just while we’re here, I, you know, one thing you learn a lot is that what people say about you or your stuff is actually they’re just talking about themselves. And so, like, the people who hate, uh, but they tend to, you know, well, the view I have is that they’re living in a roughly small world, and there’s other going on that that’s causing some sort of emotional pain going on, and it feels good to dump it. And so I just think that, you know, it’s, it’s most people, just about everything that’s coming out, reading between the lines, about themselves, so.

50:20 I mean, this brings us to the toxicity problem within crypto, particularly within the Bitcoin, sort of maxi tribe. On the one hand, you know, it’s they, it’s like considered acceptable because you’re protecting this asset, but I think, yeah, I don’t know, I just, I feel like, it’s, it’s, I think it’s gotten to this point where, like, some of the hate that’s coming, though, the toxicity, there’s not really any more about you, what’s going on with yourself, but more about the same process that happens with religion. There’s a belief system here, and so anything that’s outside of the your current viewpoint, which has gone that strong, that’s become a belief system you’ve labeled, as something wrong.

51:23 Like, yeah, it’s evil, or whatever you want to label it, is scammer. So yeah, and it’s interesting. In that, you know, money, we deal with crypto, Bitcoin, these are monetary networks. US dollar, it’s money. Any fair currency is based primarily on belief that it has value.

51:51 So it’s really interesting to see how these networks have, you know, they really, only got value because of the community behind them, and it’s interesting to see the belief is so strong, it’s like a religion, and you have the Bitcoin tribe and the maxi tribe. Um, sorry, the Ethereum tribe. And, you know, so that’s, they go to war religious wars. So, it’s something about human nature that this happens, you know, when it deals with belief. The stuff comes out.

52:26 Yeah, great observations, and if you think about it, you’re right: fiat currency is strangely enough all based on emotion and a story, uh, that we forget sometimes, because we think it’s, you know, hard real money. It’s in a double ledger system, it must be real, but it is based on a story, based on a group think and a belief system. And then when you look at, like, the Bitcoin maxis, you see again because of time and the history and the passion, it’s almost become a little bit of a victim of its success, because it’s becoming a belief system that now can’t move and be fluid.

53:03 I’ve had a lot of people on the show saying that, you know, Bitcoin was created in the spirit, never to be a maximalist instrument. The whole spirit of it was to kind of be open and innovate, and, you know, again, I had Max Keiser here in my studio in 2013. It was actually in my old studio, in my kitchen of my flat, and Max came on in 2013 screaming his head off. I had been going back and forth with him all on Twitter. I didn’t know if we’d actually have a fight, but I ended up becoming good friends with Max.

53:29 I bought some Bitcoin at 85 pounds. And, you know, uh, I watched his whole amazing journey, and he’s contributed so much to this space. But, you know, Max, I’ll say this: if you’re listening, Max is such a maximalist that he won’t come on my show, because I have a DeFi Academy, and I’m talking to the founders of Tron and Avax and all this, and he’s like, Brian, Bitcoin won, story over everything else is garbage, and I’m like, come on Max, you know, at some point this might endanger innovation or the future of Bitcoin.

53:59 And one thing I find really refreshing about you, Willy, is that even though you specialize in Bitcoin on-chain analytics, you’re still open to looking at what’s happening in DeFi and what’s happening in the protocols and the innovation. So yeah, that’s what I kind of see with the maximalists. I also get it, if your whole, you know, culture and emotional experience and net worth and your whole life has been based on promoting this thing, of course it will become part of a belief system, like you said, like a religion, to where maybe you just defend it without knowing it.

54:33 So I don’t know, I’m curious for your thoughts on some of that stuff. It’s a real, it’s, you know, very few people know that when Bitcoin, in its very first releases by Satoshi, that it had a full Turing, what we call Turing complete, meaning a full compute engine that is equivalent to run any, it can run any kind of program, like Ethereum. There’s no limits to the computing you could do on that network. That was actually in the original Satoshi release, was later removed by someone called Dave.

55:05 Dave’s thinking was, you know, a huge vulnerability hole which we didn’t know whether or not this that would be or wouldn’t be until Ethereum came up and and experimented in that, but it was very open for experimentation. Vitalik wanted to do the stuff on the Bitcoin chain, and there was a split, and I think, well, very strong no, to keep this as very hard impenetrable unhackable money. That might have been the right decision, but Satoshi himself was very open to innovation, and I think he would, he would like Ethereum and other smart contract networks given what he put in that code originally.

55:52 So, that’s what I think. And also there’s this other thing with one of the core tenets of Bitcoin is decentralization. So I think one of the biggest risks we could ever have is just one coin to rule them all, and that fails. The whole thing goes down, rather than having thousands of alternatives. They’re constantly innovating, and they’ve got different security holes, right?

56:19 And let the stronger survive. Yeah, that’s quote of the day, Willy. Is that Satoshi would, uh, would love Ethereum for sure. Um, if you had to break down Ethereum, you know, how it’s performed, its creation, where it is today, from say 14 to 22. How would you encapsulate your thoughts on it, the current status, the future of it?

56:45 Wow, it’s very wide. I think the Ethereum’s launch was somewhat somewhat unfortunate, and that they had, like, within the founding team, they were, the team was split between the purists, the Vitalik side, the developers, and the many people, and and I think it’s unfortunate that many people got the upper hand and pushed to do effectively the pre-mine and the ICO. I think there was a fair chance that it could have been a fair launch. It was similar to Bitcoin, and I think that would be, it would be very different perceived, very differently within at least the Bitcoin world.

57:30 It’s obviously done very, very well. I think, for my view, my view of it, I think it’s been a hotbed of innovation. The flip view of the maxis will say that it’s been a hotbed of creating scams and Ponzi schemes. so it’s, but yeah, like, there’s, it has made it very easy for, it’s made very, very easy for, like, many, many, teams to build something and raise lots of money on very flimsy sort of offerings, and to make money grabs, and I think that’s the that’s the downside of it, but I’d also take this view that if you look in 1990s of the world wide web, and there was the famous elevator pitch in 30 seconds while riding elevator, you could come out a few million dollars to back your idea, and it was very similar to what was happening in 2017 with a white paper raised.

58:37 There’s an idea, let’s put on a white sheet of paper, and raise you know tens, hundreds of millions on it. So like, we look at that in the Bitcoin world as like a hotbed of scams, but actually if you look at the web outlet came amazon.com and some very substantial startups that did build key infrastructure for the world, and I think that that is, I think it’s failed to say that is happening on Ethereum. You know, out of the what is 10,000 coins out there, a big chunk of them sit on the Ethereum network, and many of them are total crap, but there’s some really great innovations, and we’ve found the limits as well within the scalability of that network.

59:22 We’ve found limits on, how bad it is for writing secure code, and knowing that, you know, your cool, your tools are to write the stuff should prevent you from cutting yourself, and it hasn’t got much of that. The programming language itself is pretty, pretty difficult to write something secure. And so, like, there’s a lot of things we’ve learned from it, too, and so we’ve got competing networks now within the smart contracts, well, that are trying different things, whether it’s scalability And these are the ones that are, like, much more safeguarding against, you know, making boo-boos.

1:00:05 You know, like, we shouldn’t be, if you’re writing, you’re writing code, financial code, it should be built in a way that’s much stronger So I think of Ethereum as a very, very successful experimental platform. We’ve built some really cool stuff on it, and it’s a huge engagement. It’s creaking under the weight of it. It can’t scale very well, but we’ve learned an amazing number of lessons, and I think with the latest Ethereum 2 move and the EIP, EIP Ethereum Improvement Protocol 1559, which is effectively when we pay for fees, some of that is going to burn the Ethereum and create a deflationary pressure on the supply.

1:00:56 There, I’m slowly moving towards a monetary asset where its base layer is really aimed at really, really making fees expensive, and the trade-off for making it expensive is to boost the market cap because you’ve created deflationary depletionary pressure. So I think the future of Ethereum is a lot of the layer twos. I’m not sure if that’ll be the way we really want to take the sort of DeFi stuff global. I don’t think that it’s safe or easy enough to build rock solid code, and so I think that ultimately it may pivot to being like Litecoin, the silver to between gold, or even competing against Bitcoin is another you know, you got the US dollar and the euro.

1:01:49 I think those are our two main monetary networks, and it got there by this sort of ecosystem of innovation and building a lot of apps on it, but I think in the future it’s yet to be seen whether or not the the apps that are going to build on it will continue to be built on it. There’s a lot of competition in the platform space and we’ve seen in at least in the internet and the computer world that programming languages and programming platforms, they move, you know, according to the needs, you know, so for example, everything used to be that coded in this language called C. It was very beat in the middle.

1:02:36 It’s very fast, and it was great for, like, the low compute sort of capabilities we had in the early days, but now everything’s online, and so JavaScript and Node is this new language that impact from that people code in, and you’ll find that people jump from platform to platform to platform. Developers do this because they are looking for the platform that best suits the needs of the app and I think that the we kind of think like some people think of these networks as like Facebook. You know, we get this lock-in and the network effect so strong.

1:03:11 I don’t think that’s the case for these DeFi apps is these platforms and platforms and developers are gonna jump between them. If you’re running Tether, you’re gonna run it on Tron. Originally it was on the Bitcoin blockchain, on Omni, and then it jumped to ERC20 on Ethereum, and now it’s on Solana as well. So you’ll see these apps jump. So I think effectively Ethereum’s on the path to becoming a monetary asset, and it’s going to compete.

1:03:45 It’s going to have to compete with all the other networks coming onto the marketplace. Yeah, really good observations. I had Sandeep from Polygon here, the layer two solution, and he was talking about some of the challenges and innovations. Ultimately, it is a layer two on top of what you’ve described. What is Ethereum?

1:04:02 I’ve also been super fortunate enough to have a bunch of the layer one people on. I’m calling this the layer one wars, of course. You know, Emin Gün from Avax and Justin Sun, and, uh, Sylvia Marcalli. They don’t like to admit there’s a layer one war when they’re on the show, but you know, I do kind of say, look, everyone’s going. I always used to joke, Willy, we’re running out of Ethereum co-founders to start up, you know, networks, right?

1:04:24 We got obviously Cardano, you know, and there’s not many left. Um, Gavin Wood of Polkadot. Obviously we got Solana, but it’s pretty exciting, and obviously good for the consumer if you’ve got all these amazing layer one solutions that will compete for each other, will give the best customer experience, and ultimately, like you said, potentially create these platforms that you can change over to based on what your needs are for your DApp. Just your thoughts on: are we in the middle of layer one wars?

1:04:55 Anything that you think is interesting or less interesting, or something to be aware of kind of in that space? Uh, yeah. Like, I mean, we’re counting in layer 2 wars of Ethereum’s. Anything to look at on there, but I think that, yeah, totally. I don’t think layer one is is complete in that, that, sort of innovation.

1:05:18 Like, you know, I’m the investor in Red X, and they’re doing layer one, and very much like scalability. Solana, they’re saying they are one, scales, and they scale even better. They scale whilst keeping the whole network decentralized. Like, you can add a Raspberry Pi to that network, and it’ll be it’ll add to the compute of that network, and so I from but like these guys figured it out. Took them like I was like eight years to get to the point, but you know, I think there’s a hot bit of innovation in that one.

1:06:00 And, what’s this? You know, I think I’m now going back to my Bitcoin roots. Like, I’m thinking of this stuff as, you know, if any one of these compute layers become popular, the token underneath it becomes it starts adopting monetary property, because it becomes the collateral on the network that’s been computed on, and so when I was like early in Bitcoin, 2014, talking to people and going, you know, I’m looking at this and it’s like, you know, there’s this thing called Cantillon effect, which is basically the people who get access to the new money being printed, new supply of money.

1:06:45 They get the advantage and they get richer. So then the fear, will the rich get richer, the bankers get richer, the people who can borrow off the banks get richer, and in the Bitcoin world, it’s the early adopter. They were the ones first in, they mined it, and then later they bought it for pennies, and so I was looking at it and going, wow, okay, this ain’t going to change the world because by the time we’ve done that, sure, we’re gonna have rich white Bitcoin whales, but what about the other people that didn’t catch on to it in 2011 or earlier?

1:07:23 And I thought, what we need is another sort of like transition of the new kind of Bitcoin. And I, I, I’ve been thinking, you know, that’s actually what’s happening. Is like right now, you know, I missed Bitcoin at a dollar, right? There was like 2010 or whatever, but I got the theory mice here and I bought it for 30 cents or whatever it was. And now, like, there were people earlier this last year that bought Celina for two dollars, and now it’s, like, it reached as high as 250 later in the year.

1:08:04 And so now I’m seeing a lot of light gen Z’s and young millennials coming in and getting access to the new supply of money being printed, and they’ve left Bitcoin. Um, they still hold some, maybe, but like they’ve had their shot at you know, wealth distribution. And I think that’s more important than Bitcoin ruling ruling the world, that like everyone can have a shot of wealth distribution and this transition of money, and you know, web, so, and also one thing I’ve noticed is that, if you were to think about this, we used to think money had network effects.

1:08:51 Like, you like his, like, island nation coin, and there’s the US dollar coin, and which coin are you gonna use, right? Which one are you gonna adopt? Everyone will run towards the US dollar coin. It’s been around longer. We might call it Lindy effect: the thing that’s been around the longest is going to last longer.

1:09:12 This thing might be around, it’ll die, right? So we thought everyone would gravitate to the strongest network. Can we have this network effect? But actually, when you think about it, what’s actually happened is Cantillon effect competing against each other is happening. Okay, I can sit in Bitcoin and I can hold it and save it.

1:09:30 That’s fine. I can, I can pour my millions into it, and I’m not gonna, I’m not gonna be fired if I’m managing my fund, because it’s not going to zero. But there’s all these new coins popping up, and if I can get access to it early, I write the Cantillon effect, I can get immensely rich. So there’s always this rotation into experimenting with the new coins. So that’s actually powering this innovation, but not only that, it’s creating wealth distribution for the guys that only have like a thousand dollars or two thousand dollars to invest, if not millions.

1:10:02 They can get their shot at it. And so I’m seeing this constant thing happening, and I, I do think it’s good. You know, I do think it’s good. Maybe I didn’t think of it when it was good when I was much more maxi a few years back, but now I’m taking this other view on it. I think it’s, it’s fine, and I’m noticing I’m noticing, for those that are following Bitcoin closely, you will notice PlanB’s stock-to-flow model.

1:10:35 Here’s one called the stock-to-flow cross asset model, and in that model, he’s clustered, like, on the x-axis is scarcity, and the y-axis is the valuation of the asset class. And so you can, he shows you can run a straight line upwards. So the more scarce it is, the more it’s valued, and gold’s sitting right up there, pretty, pretty at the very top, and then silver’s right on that line, and then Bitcoin is on that line in the early days, but the last two clusterings, after the halvening, there’s been two halvings.

1:11:12 Um, that’s fallen and deviated below that line, right? 2015 harboring and then 2019 happening. What happened in 2015? That was Ethereum that came up and it had broad adoption. So the scarcity of not the Bitcoin bucket, but the scarcity of the crypto bucket wasn’t a scarce anymore, because we had new supply coming as a different network.

1:11:39 So when I look at that chart, I look at it, it’s like, whoa. We’re getting new supply coming in. And then the market’s recognizing that maybe, if you’re creating a tiny little maybe coin that’s not liquid, doesn’t count, but if you’ve got a big, like, 800-pound gorilla like Ethereum, which has almost equivalent liquidity of Bitcoin, it counts. And so that’s, that’s, uh, now that’s an interesting up thing I’ve been noticing. It’s, it’s not Lindy, it’s continuing effect that’s, that’s, um, coming into these markets.

1:12:16 Yeah, those are some great observations. I like that continuing effect, and I encourage people to kind of meditate on that a little bit more. You know, you talked about this wealth distribution aspect, and Willy, it kind of brings it back to what we first talked about, as in maybe Bitcoin or a crypto asset could replace the nation state. You might argue that if you can distribute the wealth to the individuals, you could maybe accomplish a similar goal from the ground up, you know, by actually changing the individuals and their relationships with money.

1:12:41 So it’s interesting to see all of these things playing out apart in real time as we grow exponentially. Again, it’s an exciting future, but one thing I always ask my DeFi Academy students when they’re live with me. I said, raise your hand if you got access to a Facebook series A round in 2005, right? Strangely enough, nobody raises their hand, and I’m like, yeah, because you weren’t Peter Thiel in San Francisco at the right time, and you didn’t see that deal, and they raised it 27 million, I think.

1:13:08 Um, of course you didn’t, and most people in Silicon Valley probably didn’t even see that deal. Um, fast forward to today, you know, people all around the world can get access to a lot of these budding protocols via the blockchain. And yeah, there’s a lot of things to wade through, and there’s a lot of bad things and you know, bad coins and things going on, but there’s also incredible capital markets access to the individual like we’ve never seen before.

1:13:33 You know, when I’m on Wall Street, it’s called private equity for a reason, like you said, rich get richer, you know, and again, strangely enough, all the laws are formatted formulated to not even give access to the individual. Right? You have to prove you’re a big boy. You have to prove you have more than a hundred thousand, not worth it. It’s strangely enough, the things to protect us, kind of keep the wealth distributed that way.

1:13:51 Exactly. Strangely enough, right? Strangely enough, it’s Oh, you know, that’s not totally divorced from this crypto world either. Like, the VCs get the pre-sale, you know, maybe pennies on the dollar. It’s like maybe 10/90 discounted, but you know, if it’s a good, it’s a good asset, a lot of the VCs are mercenaries, and they’ll dump the quick 10x and roll it into the next thing, and then retail come in quite early, and they can get the next 100x on it.

1:14:21 And so I mean, it’s better than what we’re seeing in the Nasdaq, where they’ve done Series G or more, and they’re valued at a hundred billion dollars before it goes to public markets. And so, and the regulations, it’s interesting. It’s been very much set against the retail investor. But, like, I mean, this is where I focused, right? I, the newsletter has been something I wanted to give institutional-grade research to retail investors, and not just, you know, I sit on the GP of three or actually four hedge funds, and you know, like the job there is just to manage capital, make the rich richer, right?

1:15:12 And it goes completely against the Bitcoin ethos that I was kind of cut my teeth on in finance, and so I did the letter, and now, like this is the interesting project that I have for this year, because I think that there’s a regulatory path in which we can get retail investors getting access to some of the best investments in the world at a huge tax advantage and on equal footing to the high net worth, actually better, because they won’t need to hire teams of accountants and lawyers to structure. So I mean, I’m super excited to do some of that stuff. you know, I think that there are pathways available.

1:15:56 It’s just you just have to do the work to get it done. Yeah, it’s a great vision, and like you said, it’s maybe not fully democratized, but it’s moving definitely in the right direction. you know, still there is access. Maybe the Cantillon effect will always be there to a certain extent, but like you said, when you open your newsletter out to everybody, and then you start to standardize some of those contracts, etc., you take away a lot of those old barriers to entry, and we’re going in the right direction with transparency as well.

1:16:22 I mean, you know, my daughter’s 17. She hasn’t met a mask wallet. She owns assets for her first time in her life. I’m guessing Willy, you didn’t own an asset until you were way past 17. I know I didn’t.

1:16:32 You know, when we were kids, the only asset you’d ever own is maybe a piece of real estate, and even that was kind of exclusive to people in the know. Nowadays, people literally change their relationship with money by owning these digital assets, and then also getting access I want to ask you about venture cap, because it’s, it’s something that’s quite curious. Um, like you said, pre-sale tokens. I think Solana pre-sold for like four cents on the dollar into the venture caps.

1:16:59 There’s lots of pre-sales happening where you can buy the token before it goes on an ICO, IDO, IEO, and typically those valuations are significantly lower, and I think we’re seeing a lot of institutions dumping money into these venture cap funds, and we’ve had, you know, Tapiero here from 10T Holdings, I’ve had Morehead from Pantera and you know, even Scaramucci here, and obviously they’re tapped into that money. We’ve just announced London Real Ventures, and I’ve, we’ve done a couple pre-sales and we’re gonna have them on the show and it’s really exciting to work with these companies and they have great ideas, and again the opportunities are there, but I’m curious, do you see institutions deciding not to go buy Bitcoin, not to go buy Ethereum, and instead channeling their money into these venture funds that are building, I guess they call it the picks and shovels, the infrastructures, you know, the Ledger wallets, the Krakens of the future.

1:17:51 Is that something you really see happening, and is that something people need to be aware of? Yeah, I think that that’s happening because uh, look, if you look at Bitcoin, um, you know, I remember the 2016-2017 rally that was 100x in two years. Bitcoin’s currently one trillion dollar market cap, roughly, up or down a bit, but like 100x from there is a 100 trillion dollars, right? That’s near the ceiling. So 100x it used to be like everyone that you know, like you invested in Coinbase back in 2013 or even earlier, you would have done better just to hold it in Bitcoin, right?

1:18:38 You could not beat Bitcoin. But now we’re at this point where if you’re invested in a private equity and a very good company that’s a massive, of massive growth, you can beat Bitcoin, right? A thousand x versus 100x over the next eight years. So it really now is an era where it makes sense to build that kind of infrastructure and invest in it, where previously it made sense to western Bitcoin. You know, I made one investment in 2016, and that was, I have to say, that was like probably the only investment from that era that big Bitcoin they beat Bitcoin by 2x, but I don’t think anyone else did in that era.

1:19:21 We’re in this era where it’s like you can comfortably beat Bitcoin doing this infrastructure. It’s much more deep risk from doing that, and of course the adoption rates. It’s like is it near 26? I think it’s 26 adopted in the US right now, and that compares to the mid 50 percents for people of exposure to the stock market. So yeah, we’re in the early mainstream.

1:19:52 It’s hobby sticking, so there’s a lot of people that need the infrastructure. It’s the right time to listen. It’s an exciting time. Yeah, it’s definitely, and you can see why venture is making that decision, like you said. Top ceiling, probably by first principles, is 100x Bitcoin, and that’s probably near the top, whereas these venture funds are looking for a thousand x, 5,000x.

1:20:14 I mean, they got 3,000x with Solana, you know, even at my current market prices. So they’re looking into building these infrastructure plays, which, like you said, with that massive adoption, people are going to need all of the infrastructure that comes around it. I mean, Willy, I teach my students how to set up hot wallets and cold wallets, and I keep telling them there’s got to be better options in the future than a Nano Ledger cold wallet. Then what do you do?

1:20:39 You stick in your safe, under your mattress, in a safe deposit box? I mean, there’s so many technology issues that need to be solved in this space, and as the rate of adoption goes up, it makes sense that a lot of venture is being poured into those things. We as a consumer will benefit. Um, again, the liquid markets will still go up too, but it’s an interesting thing for people to realize that maybe behind the scenes, a lot of that money’s going in there for those big returns, and maybe that should be a part of your portfolio, a smaller part, because it’s riskier.

1:21:10 But absolutely, I still, I do kind of wonder how retail get access to, I mean, we are now seeing, like, retail kind of crowdfunding to get access to equity. You’re talking about the equity side of things, like building the wallets and, you know, the new Ledger sort of cold storage, that sort of thing. Yeah, I think some of that’s still quite restrictive, but we’ve got Series Reg A+, so companies can now kind of raise publicly. They had 50 million valuation or below, I think, so that’s starting to change a little, but yeah, I think it’s a great time to be investing in that stuff.

1:21:56 Yeah, and it’s super interesting. You know, it’s super interesting with the decks, and you sort of get to talk to the founders. What’s your view of this? And you know, it’s fun. It’s not like buying a coin which is, you know, just, it’s just a numbers game.

1:22:12 Yeah, my students are like complaining, and I’m like, well, when Bitcoin’s going sideways or down, you should be using your spare time to help somebody innovate, you know, with a new structure and what that means: connecting them or advising them or promoting them. But it’s fun. It’s a great thing to do with your time while you’re waiting for the markets to come back. And like you said, there’s super exciting things happening out there in all sorts of different plays, and it’s fun, it’s active, it’s engaging, and you can still have your portfolio.

1:22:40 You can still intelligently trade your Bitcoin and other things, but there’s definitely other ways you can also add value to the ecosystem. You know, help build something, help empower some other people and not just be an investor or a trader, which is ultimately, I think, what this market’s about, is contributing something. So yeah, it’s a great way to do that. Look, why I have you here, Willy? I got to get your thoughts on the metaverse.

1:23:02 I’ve had a couple old school Hong Kongers like yourself. I had Yat Siu on here, who pretty much finally explained the metaverse to me from Animoca Brands. I know it’s a little off topic, but do you have thoughts on how the metaverse plays out, and some of these NFT issues, and you know, just, I know it’s potentially an hour-long conversation, but what are your thoughts on where this plays out? Uh, yeah, I mean, right now it’s so, um, fantastical. You know, it’s like everyone’s like imagining this huge fantastical virtual world.

1:23:35 I, I, I kind of take a mundane view of it, more. I like the definition of you live in the middle east when more than half of your time is spent online and more than the majority of your net worth is online. So your crypto sits is more than your net worth. You work online You play, you know, like I don’t think it’s, I don’t think the metaverse is necessarily like, you know, put on a VR headset and you’ve got virtual NFTs and all this sort of stuff. I think it’s just, we’re we’re really living in the middle.

1:24:21 I mean back in ’99, I used to backpack around the world and I used to develop websites for startups and I would have a little laptop, and I’d plug into a dial-up internet, and I’d do my work and I’d be contracting to US companies. I could be anywhere in the world. So I was, I was working online. I didn’t get paid in crypto, but like a big chunk of, like, a third of my day was being online, just working. So I was already, that was like my first real sort of living in the metaverse.

1:24:58 You know, I made friends online. I started a business with someone I never met, which turned over half a million dollars in the first three months. I didn’t even know the guy. Like I never met him in person, and I never will, because that person died before I got to meet him. Um, and so it was a, it’s that, yeah, I met this guy online, um, and we started a business, and it was a software company, and we sold it online.

1:25:30 And who do I need to know, if it was that AI, was that a dog? Was it like, I never met the person that was mid of their stuff, right? And so that was 1999 on dial-up internet. So I think it started with the internet, and, um, this is more of a completion step to add the frills. Everyone’s talking about the frilly stuff, you know.

1:25:54 Um, Meta’s reading Facebook’s revenge branded into Meta, and all this stuff, and it sounds fantastical, but I think it’s more mundane than that, and we’re already in it. I mean, look at us right now. So the answer is, we are already in the middle verse. And I think you’re totally right. I had this conversation with Yat a little bit.

1:26:16 He was just like, you know, Brian, forget about Axie Infinity, like, what are we doing now? Most people come to work. They spend a lot of it on Zoom. You know, at the end of the month, they’re, they’re accredited, their accounts, some tokens or some fiat, and you know, business is a game, isn’t it? It’s an allocation of capital.

1:26:33 It’s decision making. It’s done mostly via digital. So who are we kidding, right? We’ve been in the metaverse for a while. Exactly.

1:26:42 Um, a couple of the final things, Willy. You mentioned Michael Saylor in the past. I’ve had Michael on the show, and, you know, it was an amazing conversation. Obviously, you know, to see someone like that go in and to kind of, you know, see the US dollar, you know, through the paradigm of, you know, kind of a global shift. It has been very interesting.

1:27:02 I think you’ve said it’s really an ETF in disguise, which is kind of where I’m going with this question. Um, I had Michael on the show, and he was just like, Brian, I’m buying Bitcoin no matter what the price. You know, when you hear Michael say that, it’s like you said earlier, it’s like these people are buying. He’s like, I’ll buy it up to 250,000. I think that’s what he said that to me last year, and, and again, people just, it was one line he said, but you can start to see there are buyers out there, and you see this from on-chain analysts that are just in this for the long term.

1:27:32 As far as this year, do you see ETFs being something that comes to play? Do you see other public companies buying Bitcoin on their balance sheet, or does it not matter, because MicroStrategy has kind of given us that option? Just your thoughts? Yeah, I think that, um, there’s a lot of companies that are buying, um, Bitcoin under the radar by buying MicroStrategy stock and their bond offerings, and I think that they’ll become easy, like, tip the box. I’ve got my Bitcoin explosion treasury, but I don’t have to figure out custodial issues.

1:28:07 I don’t have to go to the board and figure out, like, Bitcoin on, on the physical, the assets. Um, I think that, like, no, no. I haven’t heard Michael Saylor announce this. Maybe he’s not allowed to, but I, I kind of think people are just buying MicroStrategy and their multiple offerings, and that’s why, um, like, they are, like, the super treasury whale. If you look, I track the public treasuries over time, and the only game in town is MicroStrategy, and like, we have got spot ETFs in Canada, and we’ve got the Grayscale ETF, which is not really the full ETF, but it’s a pseudo ETF.

1:28:50 It’s available to the public. The ETFs are pretty stagnant, that’s slightly trending downwards. Meanwhile, you’ve got MicroStrategy, from the moment, um, they did the Bitcoin for, um, for institutions conference in February of last year, they just went um linear upwards, right, as ETFs went linear downwards, which I found that very interesting. I think that my christianity undoubtedly has been perceived as the Bitcoin exposure, um, equity on the stock exchange.

1:29:26 You certainly wouldn’t buy and hold, like, proceeds ETF, which is not really holding the spot but holding the futures. Um, this is very expensive, probably. Um, you know, rollover and contango fees. Just the mechanism in which they get that exposure is very, very expensive. So that’s not a long-term hold vehicle for anyone who knows what they’re doing.

1:29:55 Um, spot ETFs aren’t really being taken up. The only game in town is MicroStrategy right now, and maybe some of the smaller mining shares. Um, and I don’t know if, like, we’ll see a spot ETF anytime soon. I, I don’t have any special knowledge on how, um, how the regulators and the SEC perceive that. It’s certainly a new kind of area to regulate in terms of holding the underlying, which they don’t understand very well, and probably these vested interests may.

1:30:32 Yeah, maybe if you want to take a stab at these vested interests, have a futures ETF over a spot, because it provides price control on Bitcoin. Like, if you have a lot of paper around Bitcoin, around you, you do get price impact amongst the trading world, and that can be very profitable. I have seen that already. Like, the whole market is behaving very differently since the pressures ETF came onto the market in terms of how the price is performing compared to what we’re seeing on chain.

1:31:06 It’s, um, it’s very different right now, and the futures always add tons of leverage to the system and more volatility, and you can see that in the price action as well. Yeah, very much so. It’s, uh, it’s yeah, I’m, I, I, like, I mean, if anyone remembers the dream time of October 2020 to, like, the first couple of months of 2021, and we just rallied from 10 to 50, in the, eventually, 60. Um, that was a spot rally. You know, that was people buying the underlying asset and putting it in their putting it in their cold storage, and the futures really had no say in there, because we were buying the asset, not the few, the futures was taking a free ride by going long.

1:31:54 Normally, when you do that, they get killed, but the demand was there. Um, but now we’re in a situation where it’s not quite like that, and the futures is mostly volume, and there’s a lot of trading games going on, and the price is chopping around all over the place and it’s always going in the way in which it’s least predicted, just to screw with the most amount of traders, and it’s not, it’s not, I don’t think it’s very healthy for the long term, um impact of Bitcoin. So I would really love to see a spot ETF being approved, and, um, futures ETFs is falling out of favor.

1:32:32 Yeah, just final question on, like, blockchain and at least Bitcoin institutions: like, when will they get involved? I mean, I used to work for banks, obviously. Pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, they, we haven’t really seen them go in, and again, there’s tons of questions, like you said, how do you hold the Bitcoin, how do you hold it on a public balance sheet, and all these things that obviously Michael’s dove into with MicroStrategy. You know, when do you see this adoption happening?

1:33:01 Does it come in stages? Is it unpredictable, and is it going to be much slower than maybe we think it will be? Um, I mean, I mean, what kind of institutions? Is the sovereign wealth? It’s sovereign wealth.

1:33:13 I think it’s going to happen quite soon. I mean, they’ve been looking at it, like, at least the couple that I know are looking at it, um, for a while now, you know, like as early as 2019. Um, and they were going to, like, go looking a few billion, at least a billion. It’s just a lot bigger now. The whole, the whole system’s a lot bigger, so I, I do think that’s, that’s going to come.

1:33:39 It’s always, like, around the corner, but I, I think that’s going to come. It kind of needs to be a trillion dollar asset class, I think, and now we’re in that, that point where it’s de-risked somewhat. Mutual funds, yeah, that’s already happened in New Zealand. They, the growth fund, one of the great funds in New Zealand for retirees, that, how allocated into Bitcoin. They also sold off.

1:34:05 They did a good trade there, but um, it’s time to see that. So maybe it’s, uh, a peter patter, you know, and it starts, starts more and more people walking, and it’s a slow and progressive wave. Maybe that’s what I would say. I don’t have any special knowledge. Maybe Scary, she would have a better idea of when these guys are coming.

1:34:26 Not me. Yeah, well, look, we could probably, I’ll have to have you back so I can go even deeper on, like, not only what you see out there, the wrist guard plays, all the institutions. We could probably talk for hours, but I want to kind of wrap this up and maybe ask a personal question. I mean, really, like, you know, you’re a unique individual. You know, like you said, you kind of grew up in this small-town Kiwi mindset.

1:34:50 You’re kind of this laid-back surfer dude, and yet you’re also at the forefront of this, of this movement. Not only doing a newsletter and talking to 700,000 people, but you’re also advising institutions, big ones. Um, just wondering, like, what makes you do what you do? How do you get up every day, what you know, what ultimately drives you to do all this stuff? Because you could be in Maui right now, obviously doing other things.

1:35:18 What makes you do this? I mean, I think you said it, it’s like a game, like when you work, it’s you’re making decisions, it’s all gamified, it’s, it’s really just for fun, you know, it’s, um, uh, I mean, I’m fortunate to be like one of these guys who go down a rabbit hole, and, you know, I’m probably mildly on the spectrum. Once I’ve got something in my sights, I can’t get out of my mind. I just go down and down and down into it, and, like, it’s fun. It’s really fun, and I’ve always gravitated towards the future, you know, in tech, and so when I think about my career act, which, um, you know, in hindsight, I go, gee, whenever I see a technology that looks really exciting, because it might be something in the future, that’s what excites me.

1:36:10 And you know, it excited me in the early days of, um, like mobile, and, wow, you mean we’re gonna carry a computer in our pockets, and everyone’s gonna own it? Imagine that. And so, you know, I built my first startups around that, and the same thing with Bitcoin. And so, like, it’s just, like, it’s fun to live in the future and see all the possibilities. So, I mean, that’s it.

1:36:35 I’m relatively lazy. I’m very lazy. I have to be really into something, because it’s basically, I go to work because it’s like turning on a video game. Um, otherwise, I wouldn’t get out of bed. I’d be surfing, right?

1:36:51 Um, So yeah, that’s, that’s, it’s, it’s nothing noble. It’s just, it’s fun. You know, yeah, well, I don’t believe any of that. I don’t think you’re lazy, but I see the point you’re making. You know, for you, it’s fun, and it’s interesting, and it’s a game, and that’s probably why you’re so successful, because you’re just enjoying yourself.

1:37:09 You’re exploring. You’re educating, and, you know, that’s usually how people are made successful when they’re doing it for the right reasons. So, um, yeah, you kind of embody that, Willy. I’ve got to ask you a question. I usually say this for my in-studio guests, but I want to ask you as we wrap up, if you could pick up the phone and call up 20-year-old Willy, literally that kid, you know, studying engineering at New Zealand, and give him some advice based on everything you know now, and looking at your career arc, and the backpacking days in Europe, and, like, what is the one thing you would tell him?

1:37:41 Uh, yeah, okay. So, yeah, one thing would be, yeah, it’s just do anything you’re scared of. Do everything you’re scared of. If you’ve got, like, A or B, you can’t pick between, just do the one that’s more scary. Yeah, that would be it, and do stuff a lot.

1:37:59 Like, yeah, and it’s not even A or B. It’s like, oh, those guys are really scary. Go and talk to them, spend time with them. You know, that way of living is really scary. Go live that way.

1:38:10 Just do it, push the envelope. Um, I think it’s really hard. It’s really unsettling, um, but you’ll, you’ll find that the, the more you do that, the more memorable those times are, and it’s, like, it’s a really, like, I’ve had years where I’ve done non-stop there, and it’s well, I remember that that was, like, five years of living. So do more of that, live more. You know, that would be it.

1:38:35 Yeah, it’s great advice. Like you said, you do that for a year, and it’ll feel like five years, and you’ll grow as much. Your character will be as much as well. And you know, really, the older I get, I almost feel like I almost owe that to the world for giving me this precious gift called life. You know, the fact I get to be in this world and have cool conversations with you, and have this studio, and it’s almost like I gotta pay for that, and I gotta pay for that by doing the scary things every single day, by pushing myself, by, you know, trying to add some value.

1:39:07 And like, that’s where I kind of make, make sure that I do it, because I’m also conscious that I’m not going to be here forever. So yeah, it’s a good piece of advice for people to think about. You know, um, where’s that scary thing? Where’s that hell’s yeah? You know, not just a yes or no.

1:39:23 Hell yeah, I gotta go do that, right? And to push yourself to do that, right? Absolutely, absolutely. I know that’s, it’s a rich, rewarding life, right there. Right?

1:39:34 Nothing, nothing, hit time like that. If you, if you live that way, it’s it’s, it’s a dream. You know, uh, yeah, yeah, it’s actually kind of an honor to live that way, but like you said, it’s hard, because every day you’ve got to push yourself, and I know super high-performance people, and everybody gets in a comfort zone, even if you’re an entrepreneur and this and that. So you have to push yourself out of your own zone, which will always be uncomfortable.

1:39:58 So it’s a daily process and struggle. It’ll never be easy to do a hard thing, will it? Every day. So it’s like, you gotta, you gotta push yourself for sure. Um, Willy, final thoughts for somebody listening who’s maybe new to this space, or that 20-year-old out there, or someone who is excited about this ecosystem but maybe doesn’t know what to do, how to do it, where to do it.

1:40:22 Just advice to them that they can think about maybe over the next five or ten years. Gosh, like, what to do. Yeah, okay. Um, well, I mean, it’s a pretty, pretty standard thing, like, um, by the time, over the next 10 years, you know, like, the jobs are gonna change completely. I think that, um, there’s not a lot of value to, um, training, training, training for some future it’s really about learning, a learning journey.

1:40:54 And I mean, shows like this, this, the internet. There’s so much great stuff out there. I really depends on where your, um, passion to learn is. Figure that out and just learn, um, like, to be successful, you just gotta have skills that very few people have. And so every person is unique.

1:41:22 Everyone has different interests. You can forge that, so a lot of it is, um, I think, be yourself, to the most, like, learn the stuff that are most geared to what you want to do. Absolutely different from what we were, our parents told us, who we lived in an industrial age, where they had to conform to an industrial machine. Do the opposite to that, be creative. Um, creative.

1:41:45 You’re learning that stuff, you know, and if you get really into it and get good at it, there’s always, um, success on the other end of that. Yeah, great advice. I’m thinking of a quote by Mark Twain, who said, I never let my, my, uh, schooling get in the way of my education. You know, you know, like you said, we grew up, it’s like, what are you gonna major in in college, and you’re gonna go four years, and then you’re gonna go to get a job in X industry, and like, that was only, what, 30 years ago.

1:42:16 Like, that’s all changed, and fast forward to 10, 20 years from now, that’ll all change again, and unless you’re constantly learning, you won’t be ready for the future. And like you said, online’s incredible, and when I asked Michael Saylor how he got his head around Bitcoin, he’s like, Brian, I watched 100 YouTube videos. And it’s like, that was the best way to learn. You know, a guy that he’d come from MIT, and he was the first one to say, I had to go somewhere else to learn.

1:42:42 And, you know, that’s the beautiful thing about this space. There’s so much knowledge if you just go grab it, and then try to stay in that growth mindset the rest of your life, right? Constantly be learning, maybe constantly changing yourself. Um, Willy, what’s the best way for people to get your newsletter, follow you on Twitter and elsewhere, or even contact you? What’s the best way?

1:43:04 Yeah, Twitter’s pretty much the best. Um, just follow me on Woonomic, and from there, look at my profile, newsletter, if you want to subscribe to there. But pretty much, I just post what I’m working on here and there, so that’s this way to see what I’m up to. Um, so yeah, yeah, your tweets, are they’re, you know, they’re kind of, they’re gold. I mean, like, your tweets are, they’re pretty powerful little pieces of information, I must say.

1:43:38 Uh, well thought out and, uh, really thought-provoking, so I appreciate all those. I know they take time, and I encourage everybody to follow you. Uh, Willy, I was already pumped for this conversation, and it’s been about 5x better than I thought it was going to be. So I just want to say, thank you so much. Honestly, if the cameras are off, I would still be here, because it’s been a fantastic learning experience.

1:44:00 You are really one of the next-level people out there, and I’ve talked to a thousand people the last 10 years, and you are right up there. So I just appreciate you, your, your knowledge you’re sharing with the world, and yeah, it’s been great for me. Please come see us in London, uh, for an in-studio, it’d be great, or come back in the future, because I’d love to talk to you more. I’d love that. Thank you so much, Brian.

1:44:21 It’s been absolutely, um, a blast. And yeah, likewise, it’s been such an enjoyable conversation. I could be sitting here all night and continuing so yeah, now I appreciate it. My mind was like expanding, like about 30 minutes, and I’m going to be thinking about this for at least a few weeks, so, uh, yeah, really appreciate that. Um, I hope everyone’s enjoyed it.

1:44:41 Stay with me here, but I’ll wrap this thing up, but thank everybody for watching. Appreciate you. Follow Willy Woo. He’s got some incredible ideas even more than when we unpacked here. And again, I just say to anybody out there, get involved in this space, educate yourself, because this is the future.

1:44:57 Money is, it’s not just an asset class, it’s part of our human experience, and so I just say, you get a handle on it, understand it, master it. It’ll be a big part of your life. So that’s it. Thank you so much. We’ll see you next time on London Real.